WEEK 2 · KICKOFF PASSED

LV at LAC

LV at LAC
Sun, Sep 20, 4:05 PM EDT

OUR PREDICTED WINNER

LAC

LV 21 · LAC 24 projected score

55%Estimated win chance

The house forecast remains Los Angeles 24-21 at an uncalibrated 55%. McConkey is active and Bowers is inactive, a split availability result that does not justify moving the winner estimate. Fanatics' displayed Los Angeles -7 is context only, not a copied prediction or verified executable line.

Winner reasoning, risks and sources

Final official inactives confirmed Ladd McConkey active and Brock Bowers inactive. That modestly favors the Chargers passing setup but does not resolve the broader uncertainty in a close divisional matchup. The 55% winner probability remains subjective and uncalibrated.

Final availability removes Brock Bowers and several Chargers defensive backs and offensive linemen, while every selected forecast player remains active.
Publisher-displayed operator prices are not guaranteed executable, and comparable market movement was not established.
SoFi Stadium is covered but not sealed; game script and target distribution remain uncertain.

NFL Week 2 schedule ↗
Week 2 pairs Philadelphia at Tennessee, Jacksonville at Denver, Las Vegas at the Chargers, and Seattle at Arizona on September 20, 2026.
Observed 2026-09-14T15:10:35Z

Raiders official Week 1 box score ↗
Las Vegas beat Miami 27-13. Jeanty rushed 23 times for 102 yards and caught six for 45 yards and two receiving touchdowns. Tucker caught two for 27; Mayer caught six for 32. Cousins passed for 160 yards.
Observed 2026-09-14T15:10:35Z

Raiders current depth chart ↗
The September 8 chart lists Jeanty as the first running back, Tucker among the first receivers, and Mayer behind Bowers at tight end. Depth order does not clear an injured player.
Observed 2026-09-14T15:10:35Z

Raiders Week 1 injury report ↗
Brock Bowers was ruled out for Week 1 with a knee injury. This Week 1 designation does not resolve his Week 2 availability.
Observed 2026-09-14T15:10:35Z

Chargers official Week 1 box score ↗
The Chargers lost 26-14. Hampton rushed 12 times for 43 yards and one touchdown; Herbert passed for 209 yards. Njoku caught five for 58 yards; McConkey caught five for 82.
Observed 2026-09-14T15:10:35Z

Chargers current depth chart ↗
Hampton is first at running back, Herbert first at quarterback, and Njoku second at tight end behind Kolar. Njoku's receiving projection uses his demonstrated Week 1 catches, not a claim that he is the first listed tight end.
Observed 2026-09-14T15:10:35Z

Chargers Week 1 game recap ↗
McConkey exited in the third quarter with a chest injury after five catches for 82 yards. No Week 2 clearance is established by this recap.
Observed 2026-09-14T15:10:35Z

SoFi Stadium venue and roof context ↗
Official venue describes indoor-outdoor design under a roof canopy. Covered does not mean sealed or fully climate controlled.
Observed 2026-09-14T15:08:28Z

Chargers and Raiders final inactives ↗
Los Angeles listed Ladd McConkey active. Las Vegas listed Brock Bowers inactive. None of the five selected forecast players was inactive.
Observed 2026-09-20T19:21:22.137Z

National Weather Service Los Angeles International Airport forecast ↗
Near SoFi Stadium, NWS reported 71 F, overcast, NNE wind 4 mph at 8:53 AM PDT and forecast a mostly cloudy day near 76 F with west-southwest wind 5 to 10 mph. SoFi has a covered indoor-outdoor design.
Observed 2026-09-20T19:21:22.137Z

Fanatics Week 2 displayed odds ↗
Fanatics displayed Los Angeles -7, Las Vegas +7, Los Angeles -330, Las Vegas +260 and total 44. These are publisher-displayed quotes, not guaranteed executable prices. Comparable movement was not established.
Observed 2026-09-20T19:21:22.137Z

RANKED BY OUR RESEARCH

Our 5 picks

These are our projected outcomes and yardage targets, not copied sportsbook lines. Percentages estimate each event’s chance, not our past accuracy. They are subjective and uncalibrated. A likely outcome is not automatically a good bet at any price. These are individual ideas, not a suggested parlay.

PICK 01 · CORE PLAY60%Estimated chance

Ashton Jeanty

65+ rushing yards

Our projection 78 yards

Jeanty rushed for 102 yards in Week 1 and handled 266 carries in 2025; receiving usage is not counted toward this rushing outcome.

Why this pick? Research & risks

Why this number?

Independent house threshold of 65+ rushing yards, not a sportsbook line. Assume 19 to 20 carries at roughly four yards per carry for 78 yards, below his 23 carries in the opener.

The 60% estimate is subjective and uncalibrated, rounded to five percentage points. A demonstrated lead workload and 13-yard cushion support a moderate lean, with no claim of calibrated accuracy. It is not an empirical threshold hit rate; one Week 1 game cannot calibrate this probability.

What could go wrong

A Chargers lead or a larger passing share can reduce carries; 102 yards is not assumed to repeat.
Final inactives are confirmed; role and game-script uncertainty remain.

Injuries: finalInactives: confirmedWeather: verified

Inspect 5 source receipts

Raiders official Week 1 box score ↗

Las Vegas beat Miami 27-13. Jeanty rushed 23 times for 102 yards and caught six for 45 yards and two receiving touchdowns. Tucker caught two for 27; Mayer caught six for 32. Cousins passed for 160 yards.

Observed 2026-09-14T15:10:35Z

Raiders current depth chart ↗

The September 8 chart lists Jeanty as the first running back, Tucker among the first receivers, and Mayer behind Bowers at tight end. Depth order does not clear an injured player.

Observed 2026-09-14T15:10:35Z

Ashton Jeanty official player statistics ↗

2025: 266 carries for 975 yards, 3.7 yards per carry, in 17 starts.

Observed 2026-09-10T03:36:54Z

Chargers and Raiders final inactives ↗

Los Angeles listed Ladd McConkey active. Las Vegas listed Brock Bowers inactive. None of the five selected forecast players was inactive.

Observed 2026-09-20T19:21:22.137Z

National Weather Service Los Angeles International Airport forecast ↗

Near SoFi Stadium, NWS reported 71 F, overcast, NNE wind 4 mph at 8:53 AM PDT and forecast a mostly cloudy day near 76 F with west-southwest wind 5 to 10 mph. SoFi has a covered indoor-outdoor design.

Observed 2026-09-20T19:21:22.137Z

PICK 02 · CORE PLAY55%Estimated chance

Omarion Hampton

50+ rushing yards

Our projection 62 yards

Hampton remains first on the depth chart; 43 Week 1 rushing yards anchor a restrained projection.

Why this pick? Research & risks

Why this number?

Independent house threshold of 50+ rushing yards, not a sportsbook line. Assume about 15 carries at roughly 4.1 yards per carry for 62 yards, a modest volume increase from 12 Week 1 carries.

The 55% estimate is subjective and uncalibrated, rounded to five percentage points. A first-back role and 12-yard projection margin support a small positive lean, offset by an unproven volume increase. It is not an empirical threshold hit rate; one Week 1 game cannot calibrate this probability.

What could go wrong

Mitchell, Herbert's scrambles and a pass-heavy deficit could prevent the assumed carry increase.
Final inactives are confirmed; role and game-script uncertainty remain.

Injuries: finalInactives: confirmedWeather: verified

Inspect 4 source receipts

Chargers official Week 1 box score ↗

The Chargers lost 26-14. Hampton rushed 12 times for 43 yards and one touchdown; Herbert passed for 209 yards. Njoku caught five for 58 yards; McConkey caught five for 82.

Observed 2026-09-14T15:10:35Z

Chargers current depth chart ↗

Hampton is first at running back, Herbert first at quarterback, and Njoku second at tight end behind Kolar. Njoku's receiving projection uses his demonstrated Week 1 catches, not a claim that he is the first listed tight end.

Observed 2026-09-14T15:10:35Z

Chargers and Raiders final inactives ↗

Los Angeles listed Ladd McConkey active. Las Vegas listed Brock Bowers inactive. None of the five selected forecast players was inactive.

Observed 2026-09-20T19:21:22.137Z

National Weather Service Los Angeles International Airport forecast ↗

Observed 2026-09-20T19:21:22.137Z

PICK 03 · SLEEPER55%Estimated chance

Michael Mayer

25+ receiving yards

Our projection 36 yards

Mayer caught six passes for 32 yards while Bowers was out in Week 1. Bowers is officially inactive again, so the forecast no longer depends on a return scenario.

Why this pick? Research & risks

Why this number?

Independent house threshold of 25+ receiving yards, not a sportsbook line. With Brock Bowers officially inactive, assume five to six targets and about four catches for roughly 36 yards.

The 55% estimate is subjective and uncalibrated, rounded to five percentage points. Bowers' official inactive status removes the lower-volume return branch, while Mayer's six catches for 32 yards in Week 1 support a modest lean. This is not an empirical threshold hit rate.

What could go wrong

Jeanty and the Raiders wideouts can absorb short-area targets, and 32 Week 1 yards leave only a narrow margin above 25.
Bowers being inactive does not guarantee a specific route count or target share.

Injuries: finalInactives: confirmedWeather: verified

Inspect 6 source receipts

Raiders official Week 1 box score ↗

Observed 2026-09-14T15:10:35Z

Raiders current depth chart ↗

The September 8 chart lists Jeanty as the first running back, Tucker among the first receivers, and Mayer behind Bowers at tight end. Depth order does not clear an injured player.

Observed 2026-09-14T15:10:35Z

Raiders Week 1 injury report ↗

Brock Bowers was ruled out for Week 1 with a knee injury. This Week 1 designation does not resolve his Week 2 availability.

Observed 2026-09-14T15:10:35Z

Michael Mayer official player statistics ↗

2025: 35 receptions for 328 yards in 13 games.

Observed 2026-09-10T03:36:54Z

Chargers and Raiders final inactives ↗

Los Angeles listed Ladd McConkey active. Las Vegas listed Brock Bowers inactive. None of the five selected forecast players was inactive.

Observed 2026-09-20T19:21:22.137Z

National Weather Service Los Angeles International Airport forecast ↗

Observed 2026-09-20T19:21:22.137Z

PICK 04 · CORE PLAY50%Estimated chance

Tre Tucker

35+ receiving yards

Our projection 44 yards

Tucker is a first receiver and recorded 696 receiving yards in 2025; the projection does not extrapolate a breakout from Week 1.

Why this pick? Research & risks

Why this number?

Independent house threshold of 35+ receiving yards, not a sportsbook line. Assume five to six targets, three to four catches and around 12.5 yards per catch for 44 yards.

The 50% estimate is subjective and uncalibrated, rounded to five percentage points. Prior production supports more than the two-catch opener, but the target distribution keeps the estimate near even. It is not an empirical threshold hit rate; one Week 1 game cannot calibrate this probability.

What could go wrong

Jeanty drew six catches and Bowers is inactive, but Mayer and Jeanty can still draw underneath work, both limiting receiver opportunity.
Final inactives are confirmed; role and game-script uncertainty remain.

Injuries: finalInactives: confirmedWeather: verified

Inspect 6 source receipts

Raiders official Week 1 box score ↗

Observed 2026-09-14T15:10:35Z

Raiders current depth chart ↗

The September 8 chart lists Jeanty as the first running back, Tucker among the first receivers, and Mayer behind Bowers at tight end. Depth order does not clear an injured player.

Observed 2026-09-14T15:10:35Z

Raiders Week 1 injury report ↗

Brock Bowers was ruled out for Week 1 with a knee injury. This Week 1 designation does not resolve his Week 2 availability.

Observed 2026-09-14T15:10:35Z

Tre Tucker official player statistics ↗

2025: 57 catches for 696 yards, 12.2 yards per catch, in 17 starts.

Observed 2026-09-10T03:36:54Z

Chargers and Raiders final inactives ↗

Los Angeles listed Ladd McConkey active. Las Vegas listed Brock Bowers inactive. None of the five selected forecast players was inactive.

Observed 2026-09-20T19:21:22.137Z

National Weather Service Los Angeles International Airport forecast ↗

Observed 2026-09-20T19:21:22.137Z

PICK 05 · CORE PLAY50%Estimated chance

David Njoku

35+ receiving yards

Our projection 41 yards

Njoku is second on the tight-end chart behind Kolar, yet caught five passes for 58 yards in the opener; those catches are the role evidence.

Why this pick? Research & risks

Why this number?

Independent house threshold of 35+ receiving yards, not a sportsbook line. Assume five to six targets, around four catches and just over 10 yards per catch for 41 yards.

The 50% estimate is subjective and uncalibrated, rounded to five percentage points. Five Week 1 catches support a receiving role, but a six-yard margin and tight-end rotation warrant only 50%. It is not an empirical threshold hit rate; one Week 1 game cannot calibrate this probability.

What could go wrong

Kolar and Gadsden compete for snaps and routes. No automatic target boost from McConkey's injury is assumed.
Final inactives are confirmed; role and game-script uncertainty remain.

Injuries: finalInactives: confirmedWeather: verified

Inspect 5 source receipts

Chargers official Week 1 box score ↗

The Chargers lost 26-14. Hampton rushed 12 times for 43 yards and one touchdown; Herbert passed for 209 yards. Njoku caught five for 58 yards; McConkey caught five for 82.

Observed 2026-09-14T15:10:35Z

Chargers current depth chart ↗

Observed 2026-09-14T15:10:35Z

Chargers Week 1 game recap ↗

McConkey exited in the third quarter with a chest injury after five catches for 82 yards. No Week 2 clearance is established by this recap.

Observed 2026-09-14T15:10:35Z

Chargers and Raiders final inactives ↗

Los Angeles listed Ladd McConkey active. Las Vegas listed Brock Bowers inactive. None of the five selected forecast players was inactive.

Observed 2026-09-20T19:21:22.137Z

National Weather Service Los Angeles International Airport forecast ↗

Observed 2026-09-20T19:21:22.137Z

Forecast publication snapshot

Method: atlas-research-v2 · subjective research estimates
Published: 2026-09-20T19:49:58.000Z
Cutoff: 2026-09-20T20:05:00.000Z
Revision: 2026-w02-lv-lac-research-v2-20260920-r2

SHA-256 d8249986834f7e18b21bace11241d4d83370b826ae558f46b60b55fabab9f019

Earlier revisions remain visible in the public record. Percentages, projected score and player targets freeze together.

Inspect the permanent record ↗