WHO FED THEGOBLIN?
THE PUBLIC RECORD

Receipts, including the ugly ones.

Our game winners and player outcomes stay on the record. Earlier revisions are preserved; only the final eligible forecast is graded. No hindsight backfills.

Our winner and player forecasts

15Games with forecasts
75Player outcomes
1Games graded
40%Player hit rate · n=5
0.360Winner probability error
0.259Player probability error

Uncalibrated research estimates. Probability error uses the Brier score: lower is better, with zero for a perfectly certain correct forecast. An empty score means no verified result yet. No profitability is inferred from these numbers.

ATL AT PITOur winner: PIT · 60%5 player picks · Provisional
Awaiting verified resultBAL AT INDOur winner: BAL · 55%5 player picks · Provisional
Awaiting verified resultBUF AT HOUOur winner: HOU · 55%5 player picks · Provisional
Awaiting verified resultCLE AT JAXOur winner: JAX · 75%5 player picks · Provisional
Awaiting verified resultDEN AT KCOur winner: DEN · 55%5 player picks · Provisional
Awaiting verified resultSF AT LAROur winner: LAR · 60%5 player picks · Frozen
Winner missedOfficial result source available in full recordARI AT LACOur winner: LAC · 65%5 player picks · Provisional
Awaiting verified resultCHI AT CAROur winner: CHI · 55%5 player picks · Provisional
Awaiting verified resultDAL AT NYGOur winner: DAL · 55%5 player picks · Provisional
Awaiting verified resultGB AT MINOur winner: MIN · 55%5 player picks · Provisional
Awaiting verified resultMIA AT LVOur winner: LV · 55%5 player picks · Provisional
Awaiting verified resultNO AT DETOur winner: DET · 70%5 player picks · Provisional
Awaiting verified resultNYJ AT TENOur winner: TEN · 55%5 player picks · Provisional
Awaiting verified resultTB AT CINOur winner: CIN · 60%5 player picks · Provisional
Awaiting verified resultWAS AT PHIOur winner: PHI · 65%5 player picks · Provisional
Awaiting verified result
All 21 matchup forecast revisions
Published UTCGame / winnerStatusRevision
2026-09-11 14:44:352026-w01-atl-pit · PIT 60%Current2026-w01-atl-pit-research-v2-20260911-r2
2026-09-11 14:44:352026-w01-bal-ind · BAL 55%Current2026-w01-bal-ind-research-v2-20260911-r2
2026-09-11 14:44:352026-w01-buf-hou · HOU 55%Current2026-w01-buf-hou-research-v2-20260911-r2
2026-09-11 14:44:352026-w01-cle-jax · JAX 75%Current2026-w01-cle-jax-research-v2-20260911-r2
2026-09-11 14:44:352026-w01-den-kc · DEN 55%Current2026-w01-den-kc-research-v2-20260911-r2
2026-09-10 15:01:362026-w01-sf-lar · LAR 60%Frozen2026-w01-sf-lar-research-v2-r2
2026-09-10 04:02:482026-w01-ari-lac · LAC 65%Current2026-w01-ari-lac-research-v2-r1
2026-09-10 04:02:482026-w01-atl-pit · PIT 60%Superseded2026-w01-atl-pit-research-v2-r1
2026-09-10 04:02:482026-w01-bal-ind · BAL 55%Superseded2026-w01-bal-ind-research-v2-r1
2026-09-10 04:02:482026-w01-buf-hou · HOU 55%Superseded2026-w01-buf-hou-research-v2-r1
2026-09-10 04:02:482026-w01-chi-car · CHI 55%Current2026-w01-chi-car-research-v2-r1
2026-09-10 04:02:482026-w01-cle-jax · JAX 75%Superseded2026-w01-cle-jax-research-v2-r1
2026-09-10 04:02:482026-w01-dal-nyg · DAL 55%Current2026-w01-dal-nyg-research-v2-r1
2026-09-10 04:02:482026-w01-den-kc · DEN 55%Superseded2026-w01-den-kc-research-v2-r1
2026-09-10 04:02:482026-w01-gb-min · MIN 55%Current2026-w01-gb-min-research-v2-r1
2026-09-10 04:02:482026-w01-mia-lv · LV 55%Current2026-w01-mia-lv-research-v2-r1
2026-09-10 04:02:482026-w01-no-det · DET 70%Current2026-w01-no-det-research-v2-r1
2026-09-10 04:02:482026-w01-nyj-ten · TEN 55%Current2026-w01-nyj-ten-research-v2-r1
2026-09-10 04:02:482026-w01-sf-lar · LAR 60%Superseded2026-w01-sf-lar-research-v2-r1
2026-09-10 04:02:482026-w01-tb-cin · CIN 60%Current2026-w01-tb-cin-research-v2-r1
2026-09-10 04:02:482026-w01-was-phi · PHI 65%Current2026-w01-was-phi-research-v2-r1

Earlier editorial v1 record

3Published calls
40Research watches
3Verified settlements
0.0%Hit rate · n=3
22.5Yardage mean absolute error

No probability calibration or ROI is claimed. The method is editorial v1; quoted prices are not proof of executable wagers.

Anytime touchdownATLAS CALL

Christian McCaffrey

To score a touchdown

-155FanDuel · published quote

McCaffrey is my touchdown call because his role offers two scoring routes: carries and receptions. That is a stronger opportunity case than relying on one long play.

HOW WE GOT HERE

Qualitative scoring call from verified dual rushing/receiving usage. No numeric touchdown probability or calculated edge is asserted.

What could break the call
  • The -155 published price is expensive; a likely scorer is not automatically a good-value bet.
  • Final active status and actual workload must be confirmed.
  • Kittle and other receivers can take the scoring opportunities even when McCaffrey has a productive game.
Injuries: provisionalInactives: pendingWeather: daily onlyMarket movement: not measured
Inspect 5 source receipts
49ers: McCaffrey’s 2025 season ↗

McCaffrey recorded 311 carries, 102 catches, 10 rushing touchdowns and seven receiving touchdowns in 2025.

Observed 2026-09-10 02:20:03 UTC · official
49ers official injury report ↗

McCaffrey was absent from the retrieved participation table; Bosa and Kittle had limited entries. Final inactive lists were not yet verified.

Observed 2026-09-10 02:20:03 UTC · official
Rams official injury report ↗

Nacua and Williams were absent from the retrieved Rams participation table; unspecified statuses were not treated as confirmed actives.

Observed 2026-09-10 02:20:03 UTC · official
FanDuel published prop cards ↗

Publisher cards displayed McCaffrey anytime TD -155, Nacua over 90.5 receiving -114, and Williams over 55.5 rushing -114. These were not confirmed executable quotes.

Observed 2026-09-10 02:20:03 UTC · operator
Melbourne daily forecast ↗

The retrieved September 11 daily city forecast was sunny to partly cloudy, high 61°F and low 44°F. Kickoff wind/gusts and field conditions were not verified.

Observed 2026-09-10 02:20:03 UTC · weather

Quote captured 2026-09-10 02:20:03 UTC. Publisher-displayed, not confirmed executable. Quote source ↗

Publication snapshot

Revision: atlas-20260910-cmc-td-01
Method: atlas-editorial-v1
Published: 2026-09-10T03:11:01.000Z
Cutoff: 2026-09-11T00:35:00.000Z

SHA-256 09ad5db9e8c248e4d51cd14c8076cbd3f4c1e779104ca11a1c00928445126614

No calibrated probability is published for editorial v1. A forecast is not a guarantee.

FROZENLOSS · actual 0
Verified result source ↗
Rushing yardsATLAS CALL

Kyren Williams

Over 55.5 yards

65Editorial yardage projection
-114FanDuel · published quote

My projection is 65 rushing yards, an over-55.5 lean. Williams has a verified lead role, but this forecast gives Corum real work instead of pretending the backfield belongs to one man.

HOW WE GOT HERE

Editorial scenario: 15 carries × 4.3 yards = 64.5, rounded to 65. The efficiency assumption is below his 2025 1,252/259 rate. The 15-carry assumption explicitly allows a substantial Corum rotation.

What could break the call
  • Corum’s rotation can leave Williams short of 15 carries.
  • Warner’s return makes a simple repeat of last season’s weaker defensive games a poor assumption.
  • If the Rams chase the score, rushing attempts can disappear.
Injuries: provisionalInactives: pendingWeather: daily onlyMarket movement: not measured
Inspect 5 source receipts
Rams: running-back position reset ↗

Williams logged 259 carries for 1,252 yards; Corum had 145 carries for 746 yards. The team described an ongoing rotation.

Observed 2026-09-10 02:20:03 UTC · official
Rams: Week 1 matchup preview ↗

The official preview identifies Fred Warner’s return as a reason not to treat last season’s depleted defense as a fixed baseline.

Observed 2026-09-10 02:20:03 UTC · official
Rams official injury report ↗

Nacua and Williams were absent from the retrieved Rams participation table; unspecified statuses were not treated as confirmed actives.

Observed 2026-09-10 02:20:03 UTC · official
FanDuel published prop cards ↗

Publisher cards displayed McCaffrey anytime TD -155, Nacua over 90.5 receiving -114, and Williams over 55.5 rushing -114. These were not confirmed executable quotes.

Observed 2026-09-10 02:20:03 UTC · operator
Melbourne daily forecast ↗

The retrieved September 11 daily city forecast was sunny to partly cloudy, high 61°F and low 44°F. Kickoff wind/gusts and field conditions were not verified.

Observed 2026-09-10 02:20:03 UTC · weather

Quote captured 2026-09-10 02:20:03 UTC. Publisher-displayed, not confirmed executable. Quote source ↗

Publication snapshot

Revision: atlas-20260910-kyren-rush-01
Method: atlas-editorial-v1
Published: 2026-09-10T03:11:01.000Z
Cutoff: 2026-09-11T00:35:00.000Z

SHA-256 357b33a75c2652b54e77e6749dad03c530e60381c13d27ec0c925e09074cdb60

No calibrated probability is published for editorial v1. A forecast is not a guarantee.

FROZENLOSS · actual 41
Verified result source ↗
Receiving yardsATLAS CALL

Puka Nacua

Over 90.5 yards

95Editorial yardage projection
-114FanDuel · published quote

My projection is 95 receiving yards, a modest over-90.5 lean. Nacua’s documented receiving baseline supports the scenario, but the cushion over the quoted line is small.

HOW WE GOT HERE

Editorial scenario: 7.5 receptions × 12.7 yards = 95.25, rounded to 95. Both assumptions are below his 2025 per-game/per-catch rates. They are forecast assumptions, not verified future usage or a fitted probability model.

What could break the call
  • Adams and the tight ends can absorb targets and red-zone work.
  • Returning San Francisco defenders and a different game script can reduce volume.
  • A moved line can erase the already modest gap; do not carry this lean to any price.
Injuries: provisionalInactives: pendingWeather: daily onlyMarket movement: not measured
Inspect 6 source receipts
Rams: Nacua player statistics ↗

Nacua recorded 129 catches and 1,715 receiving yards in 16 games in 2025.

Observed 2026-09-10 02:20:03 UTC · official
Rams: Stafford–Adams connection ↗

Adams recorded 14 receiving touchdowns in 2025 and remains a meaningful receiving/scoring competitor.

Observed 2026-09-10 02:20:03 UTC · official
Rams: Week 1 matchup preview ↗

The official preview identifies Fred Warner’s return as a reason not to treat last season’s depleted defense as a fixed baseline.

Observed 2026-09-10 02:20:03 UTC · official
Rams official injury report ↗

Nacua and Williams were absent from the retrieved Rams participation table; unspecified statuses were not treated as confirmed actives.

Observed 2026-09-10 02:20:03 UTC · official
FanDuel published prop cards ↗

Publisher cards displayed McCaffrey anytime TD -155, Nacua over 90.5 receiving -114, and Williams over 55.5 rushing -114. These were not confirmed executable quotes.

Observed 2026-09-10 02:20:03 UTC · operator
Melbourne daily forecast ↗

The retrieved September 11 daily city forecast was sunny to partly cloudy, high 61°F and low 44°F. Kickoff wind/gusts and field conditions were not verified.

Observed 2026-09-10 02:20:03 UTC · weather

Quote captured 2026-09-10 02:20:03 UTC. Publisher-displayed, not confirmed executable. Quote source ↗

Publication snapshot

Revision: atlas-20260910-puka-rec-01
Method: atlas-editorial-v1
Published: 2026-09-10T03:11:01.000Z
Cutoff: 2026-09-11T00:35:00.000Z

SHA-256 19227737fd5153b919b74d3680b26ad1b94b9ac893c4da0d55bb2fa8e257db41

No calibrated probability is published for editorial v1. A forecast is not a guarantee.

FROZENLOSS · actual 74
Verified result source ↗

Revision ledger

Published UTCPlayer / marketStatusRevision
2026-09-10 03:11:01Ladd McConkey · receivingCurrent · watchatlas-20260910-ari-lac-receiving-01
2026-09-10 03:11:01Omarion Hampton · rushingCurrent · watchatlas-20260910-ari-lac-rushing-01
2026-09-10 03:11:01Omarion Hampton · tdCurrent · watchatlas-20260910-ari-lac-td-01
2026-09-10 03:11:01Bijan Robinson · receivingCurrent · watchatlas-20260910-atl-pit-receiving-01
2026-09-10 03:11:01Bijan Robinson · rushingCurrent · watchatlas-20260910-atl-pit-rushing-01
2026-09-10 03:11:01Bijan Robinson · tdCurrent · watchatlas-20260910-atl-pit-td-01
2026-09-10 03:11:01Tyler Warren · receivingCurrent · watchatlas-20260910-bal-ind-receiving-01
2026-09-10 03:11:01Jonathan Taylor · rushingCurrent · watchatlas-20260910-bal-ind-rushing-01
2026-09-10 03:11:01Jonathan Taylor · tdCurrent · watchatlas-20260910-bal-ind-td-01
2026-09-10 03:11:01DJ Moore · receivingCurrent · watchatlas-20260910-buf-hou-receiving-01
2026-09-10 03:11:01David Montgomery · rushingCurrent · watchatlas-20260910-buf-hou-rushing-01
2026-09-10 03:11:01David Montgomery · tdCurrent · watchatlas-20260910-buf-hou-td-01
2026-09-10 03:11:01Tetairoa McMillan · receivingCurrent · watchatlas-20260910-chi-car-receiving-01
2026-09-10 03:11:01Chuba Hubbard · rushingCurrent · watchatlas-20260910-chi-car-rushing-01
2026-09-10 03:11:01Chuba Hubbard · tdCurrent · watchatlas-20260910-chi-car-td-01
2026-09-10 03:11:01Brian Thomas Jr. · receivingCurrent · watchatlas-20260910-cle-jax-receiving-01
2026-09-10 03:11:01Bhayshul Tuten · rushingCurrent · watchatlas-20260910-cle-jax-rushing-01
2026-09-10 03:11:01Brian Thomas Jr. · tdCurrent · watchatlas-20260910-cle-jax-td-01
2026-09-10 03:11:01Christian McCaffrey · tdFrozen · callatlas-20260910-cmc-td-01
2026-09-10 03:11:01CeeDee Lamb · receivingCurrent · watchatlas-20260910-dal-nyg-receiving-01
2026-09-10 03:11:01Javonte Williams · rushingCurrent · watchatlas-20260910-dal-nyg-rushing-01
2026-09-10 03:11:01Javonte Williams · tdCurrent · watchatlas-20260910-dal-nyg-td-01
2026-09-10 03:11:01Courtland Sutton · receivingCurrent · watchatlas-20260910-den-kc-receiving-01
2026-09-10 03:11:01Kenneth Walker · rushingCurrent · watchatlas-20260910-den-kc-rushing-01
2026-09-10 03:11:01Kenneth Walker · tdCurrent · watchatlas-20260910-den-kc-td-01
2026-09-10 03:11:01Justin Jefferson · receivingCurrent · watchatlas-20260910-gb-min-receiving-01
2026-09-10 03:11:01Aaron Jones Sr. · rushingCurrent · watchatlas-20260910-gb-min-rushing-01
2026-09-10 03:11:01Justin Jefferson · tdCurrent · watchatlas-20260910-gb-min-td-01
2026-09-10 03:11:01Kyren Williams · rushingFrozen · callatlas-20260910-kyren-rush-01
2026-09-10 03:11:01Tre Tucker · receivingCurrent · watchatlas-20260910-mia-lv-receiving-01
2026-09-10 03:11:01De’Von Achane · rushingCurrent · watchatlas-20260910-mia-lv-rushing-01
2026-09-10 03:11:01De’Von Achane · tdCurrent · watchatlas-20260910-mia-lv-td-01
2026-09-10 03:11:01Jahmyr Gibbs · rushingCurrent · watchatlas-20260910-no-det-rushing-01
2026-09-10 03:11:01Jahmyr Gibbs · tdCurrent · watchatlas-20260910-no-det-td-01
2026-09-10 03:11:01Garrett Wilson · receivingCurrent · watchatlas-20260910-nyj-ten-receiving-01
2026-09-10 03:11:01Breece Hall · rushingCurrent · watchatlas-20260910-nyj-ten-rushing-01
2026-09-10 03:11:01Breece Hall · tdCurrent · watchatlas-20260910-nyj-ten-td-01
2026-09-10 03:11:01Puka Nacua · receivingFrozen · callatlas-20260910-puka-rec-01
2026-09-10 03:11:01Emeka Egbuka · receivingCurrent · watchatlas-20260910-tb-cin-receiving-01
2026-09-10 03:11:01Ja’Marr Chase · tdCurrent · watchatlas-20260910-tb-cin-td-01
2026-09-10 03:11:01DeVonta Smith · receivingCurrent · watchatlas-20260910-was-phi-receiving-01
2026-09-10 03:11:01Saquon Barkley · rushingCurrent · watchatlas-20260910-was-phi-rushing-01
2026-09-10 03:11:01Saquon Barkley · tdCurrent · watchatlas-20260910-was-phi-td-01
Download all public revision evidence (JSON) ↗

Weekly review

The first review needs completed games.

After every eligible call is settled, Atlas reviews the misses, yardage error and assumptions. A new method is tested against held-out weeks before replacing this one.