WEEK 2 · PREGAME RESEARCH

MIA at SF

MIA at SF
Sun, Sep 20, 4:25 PM EDT

OUR PREDICTED WINNER

SF

MIA 17 · SF 27 projected score

65%Estimated win chance

San Francisco's established Purdy-led offense and broader set of proven pass catchers earn the home lean against Miami's rebuilding lineup. Miami's first game showed a usable quarterback rushing element but limited sustained scoring. The 27-17 scenario assumes San Francisco controls more possessions, not that the 27-7 Australia result will repeat. Miami remaining on the West Coast removes an unnecessary cross-country travel assumption; the 49ers still have Australia recovery to manage.

Winner reasoning, risks and sources

UNCALIBRATED subjective 65% estimate. Original provisional Week 2 scenario, not a model-derived or sportsbook probability.

San Francisco's interior defense is missing Collins, and Achane can overturn a possession-based script with explosive runs.
Black's role makes McCaffrey workload less certain; Miami's rookie receivers may improve rapidly.
Week 2 practice and final game designations are not established; no player is confirmed active for Week 2.
Week 2 weather and roof decisions, where applicable, have not been assessed.
No executable operator price or comparable market movement is verified. Kickoff-specific weather and game-day roof status remain unverified. Venue context is not a final conditions scan.

Miami current unofficial depth chart ↗
Willis and Achane lead QB/RB rows; Douglas, Washington and Bell are first-listed receivers.
Observed 2026-09-14T15:07:28Z

Miami Week 1 recap and offensive usage ↗
Miami lost 27-13. Willis rushed 5 times for 39 yards; Achane 11 for 36. Douglas caught 5 for 94. Miami remains on the West Coast.
Observed 2026-09-14T15:07:28Z

San Francisco current unofficial depth chart ↗
September 8 chart lists Purdy, McCaffrey and Evans first, with Black behind McCaffrey. A depth chart does not guarantee game-day availability.
Observed 2026-09-14T15:07:28Z

San Francisco Week 1 offensive distribution ↗
Evans caught 6 of 7 targets for 49 yards. McCaffrey rushed 10 times for 68; Black 14 for 65. San Francisco won 27-7.
Observed 2026-09-14T15:07:28Z

San Francisco places Alfred Collins on injured reserve ↗
San Francisco placed Alfred Collins on IR before the opener; the 49ers return home to face Miami September 20.
Observed 2026-09-14T15:07:28Z

Levi's Stadium venue and roof context ↗
Official venue announcement explicitly describes the 49ers home as an outdoor stadium.
Observed 2026-09-14T15:08:28Z

RANKED BY OUR RESEARCH

Our 5 picks

These are our projected outcomes and yardage targets, not copied sportsbook lines. Percentages estimate each event’s chance, not our past accuracy. They are subjective and uncalibrated. A likely outcome is not automatically a good bet at any price. These are individual ideas, not a suggested parlay.

PICK 01 · CORE PLAY55%Estimated chance

Christian McCaffrey

55+ rushing yards

Our projection 65 yards

He remains the listed starter, but Black's substantial debut workload means this is a shared-backfield forecast. A home lead supplies a route to enough attempts without assuming a workhorse role.

Why this pick? Research & risks

Why this number?

Original house threshold, not a sportsbook line. Provisional role-based scenario with uncalibrated subjective probability.

UNCALIBRATED subjective 55% estimate: Assume 13-15 carries at 4.4-4.8 yards each, centered on 65 yards. This is a rounded judgment about reaching the house threshold, not a fitted distribution, measured hit rate or market-implied probability.

What could go wrong

Black can lead the rushing attempts again; receiving usage may replace carries.
Week 2 practice and final game designations are not established; no player is confirmed active for Week 2.

Injuries: provisionalInactives: pendingWeather: not assessed

Inspect 2 source receipts

San Francisco current unofficial depth chart ↗

September 8 chart lists Purdy, McCaffrey and Evans first, with Black behind McCaffrey. A depth chart does not guarantee game-day availability.

Observed 2026-09-14T15:07:28Z

San Francisco Week 1 offensive distribution ↗

Evans caught 6 of 7 targets for 49 yards. McCaffrey rushed 10 times for 68; Black 14 for 65. San Francisco won 27-7.

Observed 2026-09-14T15:07:28Z

PICK 02 · CORE PLAY55%Estimated chance

Mike Evans

45+ receiving yards

Our projection 54 yards

Seven targets in his team debut support a genuine place in the offense. The forecast allows fewer catches but slightly more yardage than that debut, without extrapolating one game's red-zone success.

Why this pick? Research & risks

Why this number?

Original house threshold, not a sportsbook line. Provisional role-based scenario with uncalibrated subjective probability.

UNCALIBRATED subjective 55% estimate: Assume 6-8 targets and about four catches at 13-14 yards, centered on 54 yards. This is a rounded judgment about reaching the house threshold, not a fitted distribution, measured hit rate or market-implied probability.

What could go wrong

Samuel, Kittle and McCaffrey compete for targets; a run-heavy lead lowers pass volume.
Week 2 practice and final game designations are not established; no player is confirmed active for Week 2.

Injuries: provisionalInactives: pendingWeather: not assessed

Inspect 2 source receipts

San Francisco current unofficial depth chart ↗

September 8 chart lists Purdy, McCaffrey and Evans first, with Black behind McCaffrey. A depth chart does not guarantee game-day availability.

Observed 2026-09-14T15:07:28Z

San Francisco Week 1 offensive distribution ↗

Evans caught 6 of 7 targets for 49 yards. McCaffrey rushed 10 times for 68; Black 14 for 65. San Francisco won 27-7.

Observed 2026-09-14T15:07:28Z

PICK 03 · CORE PLAY50%Estimated chance

De'Von Achane

55+ rushing yards

Our projection 61 yards

His established lead-back role and 2025 production anchor the estimate. The lower efficiency assumption and moderate carry count account for a possible trailing script and Miami's unsettled offense.

Why this pick? Research & risks

Why this number?

Original house threshold, not a sportsbook line. Provisional role-based scenario with uncalibrated subjective probability.

UNCALIBRATED subjective 50% estimate: Assume 13-15 carries around 4.2-4.5 yards per attempt, centered on 61 yards. This is a rounded judgment about reaching the house threshold, not a fitted distribution, measured hit rate or market-implied probability.

What could go wrong

San Francisco can force long-yardage passing; Wright can absorb rotational work.
Week 2 practice and final game designations are not established; no player is confirmed active for Week 2.

Injuries: provisionalInactives: pendingWeather: not assessed

Inspect 3 source receipts

Miami current unofficial depth chart ↗

Willis and Achane lead QB/RB rows; Douglas, Washington and Bell are first-listed receivers.

Observed 2026-09-14T15:07:28Z

Miami Week 1 recap and offensive usage ↗

Miami lost 27-13. Willis rushed 5 times for 39 yards; Achane 11 for 36. Douglas caught 5 for 94. Miami remains on the West Coast.

Observed 2026-09-14T15:07:28Z

De'Von Achane official player statistics ↗

2025: 238 carries for 1,350 yards in 16 games, plus 67 catches for 488 yards.

Observed 2026-09-10T03:36:54Z

PICK 04 · CORE PLAY55%Estimated chance

Malik Willis

30+ rushing yards

Our projection 35 yards

His debut's five carries support a real rushing component. Pressure and man coverage can create scramble opportunities even in a Miami deficit.

Why this pick? Research & risks

Why this number?

Original house threshold, not a sportsbook line. Provisional role-based scenario with uncalibrated subjective probability.

UNCALIBRATED subjective 55% estimate: Assume 5-7 designed runs or scrambles, averaging about 5.5-6 yards before possible kneel losses, centered on 35 yards. This is a rounded judgment about reaching the house threshold, not a fitted distribution, measured hit rate or market-implied probability.

What could go wrong

Containment, quick throws or a reduced designed-run plan can hold him below five attempts.
Week 2 practice and final game designations are not established; no player is confirmed active for Week 2.

Injuries: provisionalInactives: pendingWeather: not assessed

Inspect 2 source receipts

Miami current unofficial depth chart ↗

Willis and Achane lead QB/RB rows; Douglas, Washington and Bell are first-listed receivers.

Observed 2026-09-14T15:07:28Z

Miami Week 1 recap and offensive usage ↗

Miami lost 27-13. Willis rushed 5 times for 39 yards; Achane 11 for 36. Douglas caught 5 for 94. Miami remains on the West Coast.

Observed 2026-09-14T15:07:28Z

PICK 05 · SLEEPER50%Estimated chance

Caleb Douglas

40+ receiving yards

Our projection 46 yards

A first-listed rookie who actually led Miami in receiving is a supportable sleeper. The projection is less than half his debut yardage, recognizing that one explosive performance is not an established weekly floor.

Why this pick? Research & risks

Why this number?

Original house threshold, not a sportsbook line. Provisional role-based scenario with uncalibrated subjective probability.

UNCALIBRATED subjective 50% estimate: Assume 5-7 targets and 3-4 catches, centered on 46 yards with roughly 13 yards per catch. This is a rounded judgment about reaching the house threshold, not a fitted distribution, measured hit rate or market-implied probability.

What could go wrong

Rookie route share and chemistry remain volatile; one missing deep completion can decide this outcome.
Week 2 practice and final game designations are not established; no player is confirmed active for Week 2.

Injuries: provisionalInactives: pendingWeather: not assessed

Inspect 2 source receipts

Miami current unofficial depth chart ↗

Willis and Achane lead QB/RB rows; Douglas, Washington and Bell are first-listed receivers.

Observed 2026-09-14T15:07:28Z

Miami Week 1 recap and offensive usage ↗

Miami lost 27-13. Willis rushed 5 times for 39 yards; Achane 11 for 36. Douglas caught 5 for 94. Miami remains on the West Coast.

Observed 2026-09-14T15:07:28Z

Forecast publication snapshot

Method: atlas-research-v2 · subjective research estimates
Published: 2026-09-14T15:21:06.000Z
Cutoff: 2026-09-20T20:25:00.000Z
Revision: 2026-w02-mia-sf-research-v2-20260914-r1

SHA-256 e3fe9ffa3c8caeb1b55da156a8e27ba4ce91e67aac9ea4759751c8d89a743aea

Earlier revisions remain visible in the public record. Percentages, projected score and player targets freeze together.

Inspect the permanent record ↗