WEEK 2 · PREGAME RESEARCH

SEA at ARI

SEA at ARI
Sun, Sep 20, 4:25 PM EDT

OUR PREDICTED WINNER

ARI

SEA 20 · ARI 23 projected score

55%Estimated win chance

The 23-20 center allows Seattle's offense to improve from 13 points while bringing Arizona below its 26-point opener. The 55% estimate reflects unresolved quarterback news and does not treat either defense's opening performance as a stable rating. Week 1 is one observation, not automatic learning or proof of a new performance level.

Winner reasoning, risks and sources

Original provisional house forecast. Arizona receives a small home-field and current-quarterback-continuity edge after Brissett's 277-yard opener. The central Seattle scenario uses Lock after Darnold's early Week 1 hip injury, without declaring Darnold out for Week 2. The winner probability is a subjective, uncalibrated estimate, not a fitted model or a market price.

Official quarterback information retrieved here is the September 10 update, not a final Week 2 designation; Darnold's return would require revision.
Arizona's injury page is still the Week 1 report. Love's Week 1 participation does not establish Week 2 clearance.
Week 2 practice reports and game-day inactives are pending; weather has not been assessed.
No executable operator price or comparable market movement is verified. Kickoff-specific weather and game-day roof status remain unverified. Venue context is not a final conditions scan.

NFL Week 2 schedule ↗
Week 2 pairs Philadelphia at Tennessee, Jacksonville at Denver, Las Vegas at the Chargers, and Seattle at Arizona on September 20, 2026.
Observed 2026-09-14T15:10:35Z

Seahawks official Week 1 box score ↗
Seattle beat New England 13-10. Lock completed 16 of 22 for 187 yards after Darnold left early. Smith-Njigba caught eight for 122 yards; Price rushed 10 times for 52 yards; Holani rushed eight times for 29.
Observed 2026-09-14T15:10:35Z

Seahawks current depth chart ↗
Smith-Njigba is a first receiver and Price is first at running back, ahead of Emanuel Wilson and Holani. Darnold remains first on the chart with Lock second, but the injury update must govern quarterback assumptions.
Observed 2026-09-14T15:10:35Z

Seahawks official quarterback injury update ↗
The September 10 coaching update described Darnold's hip injury as muscular with no fracture and anticipated further clarity on Monday. It did not establish final Week 2 availability.
Observed 2026-09-14T15:10:35Z

Cardinals at Chargers official box score ↗
Arizona won 26-14. Brissett passed for 277 yards. McBride caught nine for 95; Michael Wilson caught five for 56. Allgeier rushed 17 times for 61 yards and Love rushed 11 times for 41.
Observed 2026-09-14T15:10:35Z

Cardinals current depth chart ↗
Brissett is first at quarterback, Allgeier ahead of Love at running back, and McBride and Michael Wilson first listed at their positions. This does not independently establish Week 2 health.
Observed 2026-09-14T15:10:35Z

Cardinals injury report ↗
The observed report remained Week 1 versus the Chargers, with Love questionable for an ankle injury and Adams, Taylor-Demerson and Garrett Williams out. Love subsequently participated in Week 1; Week 2 availability still requires a new report.
Observed 2026-09-14T15:10:35Z

State Farm Stadium venue and roof context ↗
Official guide says retractable roof status can change on event day. Week 2 roof status is pending.
Observed 2026-09-14T15:08:28Z

RANKED BY OUR RESEARCH

Our 5 picks

These are our projected outcomes and yardage targets, not copied sportsbook lines. Percentages estimate each event’s chance, not our past accuracy. They are subjective and uncalibrated. A likely outcome is not automatically a good bet at any price. These are individual ideas, not a suggested parlay.

PICK 01 · CORE PLAY60%Estimated chance

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

65+ receiving yards

Our projection 79 yards

His first-receiver role and production with Lock in Week 1 support involvement in the central Lock scenario, not guaranteed repeat efficiency.

Why this pick? Research & risks

Why this number?

Independent house threshold of 65+ receiving yards, not a sportsbook line. Assume nine to 10 targets, about six catches and roughly 13 yards per catch for 79 yards, below his eight-catch, 122-yard opener.

The 60% estimate is subjective and uncalibrated, rounded to five percentage points. The observed receiving concentration supports a moderate lean with a 14-yard cushion, discounted for unresolved quarterback availability. It is not an empirical threshold hit rate; one Week 1 game cannot calibrate this probability.

What could go wrong

A Darnold return or more targets to Kupp and Shaheed can change efficiency and distribution.
Week 2 practice reports and game-day inactives are pending; weather has not been assessed.

Injuries: provisionalInactives: pendingWeather: not assessed

Inspect 3 source receipts

Seahawks official Week 1 box score ↗

Seattle beat New England 13-10. Lock completed 16 of 22 for 187 yards after Darnold left early. Smith-Njigba caught eight for 122 yards; Price rushed 10 times for 52 yards; Holani rushed eight times for 29.

Observed 2026-09-14T15:10:35Z

Seahawks current depth chart ↗

Smith-Njigba is a first receiver and Price is first at running back, ahead of Emanuel Wilson and Holani. Darnold remains first on the chart with Lock second, but the injury update must govern quarterback assumptions.

Observed 2026-09-14T15:10:35Z

Seahawks official quarterback injury update ↗

The September 10 coaching update described Darnold's hip injury as muscular with no fracture and anticipated further clarity on Monday. It did not establish final Week 2 availability.

Observed 2026-09-14T15:10:35Z

PICK 02 · CORE PLAY60%Estimated chance

Trey McBride

60+ receiving yards

Our projection 70 yards

McBride is the first tight end and led Arizona's Week 1 receiving yardage; a quieter game remains plausible.

Why this pick? Research & risks

Why this number?

Independent house threshold of 60+ receiving yards, not a sportsbook line. Assume eight to nine targets, six to seven catches and roughly 11 yards per catch for 70 yards, below nine catches for 95 in Week 1.

The 60% estimate is subjective and uncalibrated, rounded to five percentage points. A prominent tight-end role and demonstrated catches support a modestly favorable estimate, with a 10-yard cushion. It is not an empirical threshold hit rate; one Week 1 game cannot calibrate this probability.

What could go wrong

Bourne, Wilson and Harrison compete for targets and Arizona may lean on its shared backfield.
Week 2 practice reports and game-day inactives are pending; weather has not been assessed.

Injuries: provisionalInactives: pendingWeather: not assessed

Inspect 2 source receipts

Cardinals at Chargers official box score ↗

Arizona won 26-14. Brissett passed for 277 yards. McBride caught nine for 95; Michael Wilson caught five for 56. Allgeier rushed 17 times for 61 yards and Love rushed 11 times for 41.

Observed 2026-09-14T15:10:35Z

Cardinals current depth chart ↗

Brissett is first at quarterback, Allgeier ahead of Love at running back, and McBride and Michael Wilson first listed at their positions. This does not independently establish Week 2 health.

Observed 2026-09-14T15:10:35Z

PICK 03 · CORE PLAY50%Estimated chance

Michael Wilson

45+ receiving yards

Our projection 53 yards

Five catches for 56 yards in Week 1 support an involved role without treating that total as a new average.

Why this pick? Research & risks

Why this number?

Independent house threshold of 45+ receiving yards, not a sportsbook line. Assume six to seven targets, about four catches and roughly 13 yards per catch for 53 yards.

The 50% estimate is subjective and uncalibrated, rounded to five percentage points. The eight-yard cushion and first-receiver role are offset by uncertain weekly target distribution, leaving the estimate at 50%. It is not an empirical threshold hit rate; one Week 1 game cannot calibrate this probability.

What could go wrong

McBride and Bourne led the opener's catch count and Harrison's involvement can rebound.
Week 2 practice reports and game-day inactives are pending; weather has not been assessed.

Injuries: provisionalInactives: pendingWeather: not assessed

Inspect 2 source receipts

Cardinals at Chargers official box score ↗

Arizona won 26-14. Brissett passed for 277 yards. McBride caught nine for 95; Michael Wilson caught five for 56. Allgeier rushed 17 times for 61 yards and Love rushed 11 times for 41.

Observed 2026-09-14T15:10:35Z

Cardinals current depth chart ↗

Brissett is first at quarterback, Allgeier ahead of Love at running back, and McBride and Michael Wilson first listed at their positions. This does not independently establish Week 2 health.

Observed 2026-09-14T15:10:35Z

PICK 04 · CORE PLAY50%Estimated chance

Jadarian Price

45+ rushing yards

Our projection 53 yards

Price rushed for 52 yards in Week 1 while Holani had eight carries; the projection assumes only a small volume increase.

Why this pick? Research & risks

Why this number?

Independent house threshold of 45+ rushing yards, not a sportsbook line. Assume roughly 12 carries at about 4.4 yards per carry for 53 yards, with Holani and Emanuel Wilson retaining work.

The 50% estimate is subjective and uncalibrated, rounded to five percentage points. The first-back listing and 10-carry opener support a plausible threshold but not a strong event lean because the backfield is shared. It is not an empirical threshold hit rate; one Week 1 game cannot calibrate this probability.

What could go wrong

The carry division and quarterback situation can change the offense; one game is a thin production baseline.
Week 2 practice reports and game-day inactives are pending; weather has not been assessed.

Injuries: provisionalInactives: pendingWeather: not assessed

Inspect 3 source receipts

Seahawks official Week 1 box score ↗

Observed 2026-09-14T15:10:35Z

Seahawks current depth chart ↗

Observed 2026-09-14T15:10:35Z

Seahawks official quarterback injury update ↗

The September 10 coaching update described Darnold's hip injury as muscular with no fracture and anticipated further clarity on Monday. It did not establish final Week 2 availability.

Observed 2026-09-14T15:10:35Z

PICK 05 · SLEEPER50%Estimated chance

Tyler Allgeier

40+ rushing yards

Our projection 47 yards

Allgeier had 17 carries for 61 yards while Love had 11 for 41, direct evidence of participation but not a fixed split.

Why this pick? Research & risks

Why this number?

Independent house threshold of 40+ rushing yards, not a sportsbook line. Assume 13 to 14 carries at roughly 3.5 yards per carry for 47 yards, below his 17-carry opener and allowing Love meaningful work.

The 50% estimate is subjective and uncalibrated, rounded to five percentage points. A seven-yard cushion and first-back listing are balanced by the shared backfield, yielding a near-even estimate. It is not an empirical threshold hit rate; one Week 1 game cannot calibrate this probability.

What could go wrong

Love's evolving ankle status and any change in the carry split can materially move this projection.
Week 2 practice reports and game-day inactives are pending; weather has not been assessed.

Injuries: provisionalInactives: pendingWeather: not assessed

Inspect 3 source receipts

Cardinals at Chargers official box score ↗

Arizona won 26-14. Brissett passed for 277 yards. McBride caught nine for 95; Michael Wilson caught five for 56. Allgeier rushed 17 times for 61 yards and Love rushed 11 times for 41.

Observed 2026-09-14T15:10:35Z

Cardinals current depth chart ↗

Brissett is first at quarterback, Allgeier ahead of Love at running back, and McBride and Michael Wilson first listed at their positions. This does not independently establish Week 2 health.

Observed 2026-09-14T15:10:35Z

Cardinals injury report ↗

The observed report remained Week 1 versus the Chargers, with Love questionable for an ankle injury and Adams, Taylor-Demerson and Garrett Williams out. Love subsequently participated in Week 1; Week 2 availability still requires a new report.

Observed 2026-09-14T15:10:35Z

Forecast publication snapshot

Method: atlas-research-v2 · subjective research estimates
Published: 2026-09-14T15:21:06.000Z
Cutoff: 2026-09-20T20:25:00.000Z
Revision: 2026-w02-sea-ari-research-v2-20260914-r1

SHA-256 4d83ba7594f04d057bc6d47290a8ee0fecff63b7d1dcc8242b0079dee9b4f4bf

Earlier revisions remain visible in the public record. Percentages, projected score and player targets freeze together.

Inspect the permanent record ↗