WHO FED THEGOBLIN?
← All this week’s games
WEEK 5 · KICKOFF PASSED

CLE at NYJ

CLE at NYJ
Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM EDT

Official schedule ↗
OUR PREDICTED WINNER

CLE

CLE 20 · NYJ 17 projected score

55%Estimated win chance

Atlas projects CLE 20, NYJ 17. The forecast synthesizes official Week 4 role evidence, current injury uncertainty, the venue and daily weather outlook, and the displayed market as context without treating the market as proof.

Winner reasoning, risks and sources

UNCALIBRATED subjective research estimate rounded to five points. Cleveland has the more credible recent defensive form, with New York still live through pressure and a low-possession home script.

  • The Jets estimated Breece Hall and Adonai Mitchell as nonparticipants in a walkthrough. Cleveland listed Dillon Gabriel as a full participant and several linemen and defenders as nonparticipants. No final game designations were available.
  • MetLife Stadium is open air. The NWS day-level forecast called for showers, a high near 69 degrees and a 90 percent precipitation chance.
  • The operator-native public display is context, not a verified executable offer or evidence of an edge.

NFL official 2026 Week 5 schedule ↗
The official schedule lists CLE at NYJ with kickoff at 2026-10-11T17:00:00Z.
Observed 2026-10-08T14:43:35Z

Official Week 5 injury and role checkpoint ↗
The Jets estimated Breece Hall and Adonai Mitchell as nonparticipants in a walkthrough. Cleveland listed Dillon Gabriel as a full participant and several linemen and defenders as nonparticipants. No final game designations were available.
Observed 2026-10-08T14:43:35Z

Official venue and weather outlook ↗
MetLife Stadium is open air. The NWS day-level forecast called for showers, a high near 69 degrees and a 90 percent precipitation chance.
Observed 2026-10-08T14:45:00Z

DraftKings operator-native public display ↗
New York Jets -1.5 (-115), total 39.5, moneyline -125; Braelon Allen anytime touchdown -110. This was a public operator display, not a verified executable offer. No comparable movement was established.
Observed 2026-10-08T14:45:48Z

Official NFL Week 4 game statistics ↗
Cleveland produced 53 Quinshon Judkins rushing yards with a touchdown and 36 Jerry Jeudy receiving yards in Week 4.
Observed 2026-10-06T14:15:15Z

Official NFL Week 4 game statistics ↗
New York produced 59 Braelon Allen rushing yards and 73 Isaiah Williams receiving yards in Week 4.
Observed 2026-10-06T14:15:15Z

RANKED BY OUR RESEARCH

Our 5 picks

These are our projected outcomes and yardage targets, not copied sportsbook lines. Percentages estimate each event’s chance, not our past accuracy. They are subjective and uncalibrated. A likely outcome is not automatically a good bet at any price. These are individual ideas, not a suggested parlay.

PICK 01 · CORE PLAY55%Estimated chance

Quinshon Judkins

45+ rushing yards

Our projection 57 yards

The threshold leaves room for normal weekly variance while preserving a meaningful role-based outcome. Week 4 is used as a role and workload anchor, not as a promise that one game repeats. The October 8 practice or final-status evidence is treated as a gate, not an inferred active designation.

Why this pick? Research & risks

Why this number?

UNCALIBRATED research judgment anchored to the player's current role, the official Week 4 game statistics and the October 8 role checkpoint in evidence and the matchup scenario. The 45+ yard threshold is an independently chosen Atlas outcome, not a copied sportsbook selection.

Subjective 55% event estimate rounded to five points. It weighs role, one-game statistical anchors, opponent structure, injury uncertainty and likely game script and current practice status. It is not an empirical hit rate, proven calibration or a betting-edge claim.

What could go wrong
  • The Jets estimated Breece Hall and Adonai Mitchell as nonparticipants in a walkthrough. Cleveland listed Dillon Gabriel as a full participant and several linemen and defenders as nonparticipants. No final game designations were available.
  • One prior game is a role anchor, not a stable distribution.
  • Turnovers, score state and opponent adjustments can redirect volume.
Injuries: provisionalInactives: pendingWeather: daily only
Inspect 4 source receipts
Official NFL Week 4 game statistics ↗

Cleveland produced 53 Quinshon Judkins rushing yards with a touchdown and 36 Jerry Jeudy receiving yards in Week 4.

Observed 2026-10-06T14:15:15Z
Official NFL Week 4 game statistics ↗

New York produced 59 Braelon Allen rushing yards and 73 Isaiah Williams receiving yards in Week 4.

Observed 2026-10-06T14:15:15Z
Official Week 5 injury and role checkpoint ↗

The Jets estimated Breece Hall and Adonai Mitchell as nonparticipants in a walkthrough. Cleveland listed Dillon Gabriel as a full participant and several linemen and defenders as nonparticipants. No final game designations were available.

Observed 2026-10-08T14:43:35Z
DraftKings public player-prop display ↗

The public player-prop display supplied price context only. It was not verified as executable and was not used to derive Atlas probabilities.

Observed 2026-10-08T14:45:48Z
FROZEN AT KICKOFFLOSS
PICK 02 · CORE PLAY55%Estimated chance

Quinshon Judkins

Anytime touchdown

The threshold leaves room for normal weekly variance while preserving a meaningful role-based outcome. Week 4 is used as a role and workload anchor, not as a promise that one game repeats. The October 8 practice or final-status evidence is treated as a gate, not an inferred active designation.

Why this pick? Research & risks

Why this number?

UNCALIBRATED research judgment anchored to the player's current role, the official Week 4 game statistics and the October 8 role checkpoint in evidence and the matchup scenario. The scoring event is an independently chosen Atlas outcome, not a copied sportsbook selection.

Subjective 55% event estimate rounded to five points. It weighs role, one-game statistical anchors, opponent structure, injury uncertainty and likely game script and current practice status. It is not an empirical hit rate, proven calibration or a betting-edge claim.

What could go wrong
  • The Jets estimated Breece Hall and Adonai Mitchell as nonparticipants in a walkthrough. Cleveland listed Dillon Gabriel as a full participant and several linemen and defenders as nonparticipants. No final game designations were available.
  • One prior game is a role anchor, not a stable distribution.
  • Turnovers, score state and opponent adjustments can redirect volume.
Injuries: provisionalInactives: pendingWeather: daily only
Inspect 4 source receipts
Official NFL Week 4 game statistics ↗

Cleveland produced 53 Quinshon Judkins rushing yards with a touchdown and 36 Jerry Jeudy receiving yards in Week 4.

Observed 2026-10-06T14:15:15Z
Official NFL Week 4 game statistics ↗

New York produced 59 Braelon Allen rushing yards and 73 Isaiah Williams receiving yards in Week 4.

Observed 2026-10-06T14:15:15Z
Official Week 5 injury and role checkpoint ↗

The Jets estimated Breece Hall and Adonai Mitchell as nonparticipants in a walkthrough. Cleveland listed Dillon Gabriel as a full participant and several linemen and defenders as nonparticipants. No final game designations were available.

Observed 2026-10-08T14:43:35Z
DraftKings public player-prop display ↗

The public player-prop display supplied price context only. It was not verified as executable and was not used to derive Atlas probabilities.

Observed 2026-10-08T14:45:48Z
FROZEN AT KICKOFFLOSS
PICK 03 · CORE PLAY55%Estimated chance

Jerry Jeudy

30+ receiving yards

Our projection 42 yards

The threshold leaves room for normal weekly variance while preserving a meaningful role-based outcome. Week 4 is used as a role and workload anchor, not as a promise that one game repeats. The October 8 practice or final-status evidence is treated as a gate, not an inferred active designation.

Why this pick? Research & risks

Why this number?

UNCALIBRATED research judgment anchored to the player's current role, the official Week 4 game statistics and the October 8 role checkpoint in evidence and the matchup scenario. The 30+ yard threshold is an independently chosen Atlas outcome, not a copied sportsbook selection.

Subjective 55% event estimate rounded to five points. It weighs role, one-game statistical anchors, opponent structure, injury uncertainty and likely game script and current practice status. It is not an empirical hit rate, proven calibration or a betting-edge claim.

What could go wrong
  • The Jets estimated Breece Hall and Adonai Mitchell as nonparticipants in a walkthrough. Cleveland listed Dillon Gabriel as a full participant and several linemen and defenders as nonparticipants. No final game designations were available.
  • One prior game is a role anchor, not a stable distribution.
  • Turnovers, score state and opponent adjustments can redirect volume.
Injuries: provisionalInactives: pendingWeather: daily only
Inspect 4 source receipts
Official NFL Week 4 game statistics ↗

Cleveland produced 53 Quinshon Judkins rushing yards with a touchdown and 36 Jerry Jeudy receiving yards in Week 4.

Observed 2026-10-06T14:15:15Z
Official NFL Week 4 game statistics ↗

New York produced 59 Braelon Allen rushing yards and 73 Isaiah Williams receiving yards in Week 4.

Observed 2026-10-06T14:15:15Z
Official Week 5 injury and role checkpoint ↗

The Jets estimated Breece Hall and Adonai Mitchell as nonparticipants in a walkthrough. Cleveland listed Dillon Gabriel as a full participant and several linemen and defenders as nonparticipants. No final game designations were available.

Observed 2026-10-08T14:43:35Z
DraftKings public player-prop display ↗

The public player-prop display supplied price context only. It was not verified as executable and was not used to derive Atlas probabilities.

Observed 2026-10-08T14:45:48Z
FROZEN AT KICKOFFLOSS
PICK 04 · CORE PLAY55%Estimated chance

Braelon Allen

45+ rushing yards

Our projection 56 yards

The threshold leaves room for normal weekly variance while preserving a meaningful role-based outcome. Week 4 is used as a role and workload anchor, not as a promise that one game repeats. The October 8 practice or final-status evidence is treated as a gate, not an inferred active designation.

Why this pick? Research & risks

Why this number?

UNCALIBRATED research judgment anchored to the player's current role, the official Week 4 game statistics and the October 8 role checkpoint in evidence and the matchup scenario. The 45+ yard threshold is an independently chosen Atlas outcome, not a copied sportsbook selection.

Subjective 55% event estimate rounded to five points. It weighs role, one-game statistical anchors, opponent structure, injury uncertainty and likely game script and current practice status. It is not an empirical hit rate, proven calibration or a betting-edge claim.

What could go wrong
  • The Jets estimated Breece Hall and Adonai Mitchell as nonparticipants in a walkthrough. Cleveland listed Dillon Gabriel as a full participant and several linemen and defenders as nonparticipants. No final game designations were available.
  • One prior game is a role anchor, not a stable distribution.
  • Turnovers, score state and opponent adjustments can redirect volume.
Injuries: provisionalInactives: pendingWeather: daily only
Inspect 4 source receipts
Official NFL Week 4 game statistics ↗

Cleveland produced 53 Quinshon Judkins rushing yards with a touchdown and 36 Jerry Jeudy receiving yards in Week 4.

Observed 2026-10-06T14:15:15Z
Official NFL Week 4 game statistics ↗

New York produced 59 Braelon Allen rushing yards and 73 Isaiah Williams receiving yards in Week 4.

Observed 2026-10-06T14:15:15Z
Official Week 5 injury and role checkpoint ↗

The Jets estimated Breece Hall and Adonai Mitchell as nonparticipants in a walkthrough. Cleveland listed Dillon Gabriel as a full participant and several linemen and defenders as nonparticipants. No final game designations were available.

Observed 2026-10-08T14:43:35Z
DraftKings public player-prop display ↗

The public player-prop display supplied price context only. It was not verified as executable and was not used to derive Atlas probabilities.

Observed 2026-10-08T14:45:48Z
FROZEN AT KICKOFFWIN
PICK 05 · SLEEPER50%Estimated chance

Isaiah Williams

45+ receiving yards

Our projection 57 yards

The threshold leaves room for normal weekly variance while preserving a meaningful role-based outcome. Week 4 is used as a role and workload anchor, not as a promise that one game repeats. The October 8 practice or final-status evidence is treated as a gate, not an inferred active designation.

Why this pick? Research & risks

Why this number?

UNCALIBRATED research judgment anchored to the player's current role, the official Week 4 game statistics and the October 8 role checkpoint in evidence and the matchup scenario. The 45+ yard threshold is an independently chosen Atlas outcome, not a copied sportsbook selection.

Subjective 50% event estimate rounded to five points. It weighs role, one-game statistical anchors, opponent structure, injury uncertainty and likely game script and current practice status. It is not an empirical hit rate, proven calibration or a betting-edge claim.

What could go wrong
  • The Jets estimated Breece Hall and Adonai Mitchell as nonparticipants in a walkthrough. Cleveland listed Dillon Gabriel as a full participant and several linemen and defenders as nonparticipants. No final game designations were available.
  • One prior game is a role anchor, not a stable distribution.
  • Turnovers, score state and opponent adjustments can redirect volume.
Injuries: provisionalInactives: pendingWeather: daily only
Inspect 4 source receipts
Official NFL Week 4 game statistics ↗

Cleveland produced 53 Quinshon Judkins rushing yards with a touchdown and 36 Jerry Jeudy receiving yards in Week 4.

Observed 2026-10-06T14:15:15Z
Official NFL Week 4 game statistics ↗

New York produced 59 Braelon Allen rushing yards and 73 Isaiah Williams receiving yards in Week 4.

Observed 2026-10-06T14:15:15Z
Official Week 5 injury and role checkpoint ↗

The Jets estimated Breece Hall and Adonai Mitchell as nonparticipants in a walkthrough. Cleveland listed Dillon Gabriel as a full participant and several linemen and defenders as nonparticipants. No final game designations were available.

Observed 2026-10-08T14:43:35Z
DraftKings public player-prop display ↗

The public player-prop display supplied price context only. It was not verified as executable and was not used to derive Atlas probabilities.

Observed 2026-10-08T14:45:48Z
FROZEN AT KICKOFFLOSS
Forecast publication snapshot

Method: atlas-research-v2 · subjective research estimates
Published: 2026-10-08T15:11:42.000Z
Cutoff: 2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z
Revision: 2026-w05-cle-nyj-research-v2-20261008-r1

SHA-256 6fbff246cee6d3decfc35eb9fc9d67b660592309774c24f86fdb35bdfd253df1

Earlier revisions remain visible in the public record. Percentages, projected score and player targets freeze together.

Inspect the permanent record ↗