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WEEK 5 · KICKOFF PASSED

DEN at LAC

DEN at LAC
Sun, Oct 11, 4:05 PM EDT

Official schedule ↗
OUR PREDICTED WINNER

DEN

DEN 23 · LAC 20 projected score

60%Estimated win chance

Atlas projects DEN 23, LAC 20. The forecast synthesizes official Week 4 role evidence, current injury uncertainty, the venue and daily weather outlook, and the displayed market as context without treating the market as proof.

Winner reasoning, risks and sources

UNCALIBRATED subjective research estimate rounded to five points. Denver owns the defensive baseline, but injuries in both secondaries and along the Chargers line make the estimate fragile.

  • Denver listed Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss as nonparticipants. The Chargers listed Rashawn Slater, Joe Alt, Derwin James and Ladd McConkey among their nonparticipants, with Quentin Johnston limited. No final game designations were available.
  • SoFi Stadium has a fixed canopy over an open-air bowl. The nearby NWS forecast called for a 50 percent chance of showers after 11 a.m. and a high near 69 degrees.
  • The operator-native public display is context, not a verified executable offer or evidence of an edge.

NFL official 2026 Week 5 schedule ↗
The official schedule lists DEN at LAC with kickoff at 2026-10-11T20:05:00Z.
Observed 2026-10-08T14:43:35Z

Official Week 5 injury and role checkpoint ↗
Denver listed Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss as nonparticipants. The Chargers listed Rashawn Slater, Joe Alt, Derwin James and Ladd McConkey among their nonparticipants, with Quentin Johnston limited. No final game designations were available.
Observed 2026-10-08T14:43:35Z

Official venue and weather outlook ↗
SoFi Stadium has a fixed canopy over an open-air bowl. The nearby NWS forecast called for a 50 percent chance of showers after 11 a.m. and a high near 69 degrees.
Observed 2026-10-08T14:45:00Z

DraftKings operator-native public display ↗
Denver -3.5 (-110), total 41.5, moneyline -185; J.K. Dobbins anytime touchdown +135. This was a public operator display, not a verified executable offer. No comparable movement was established.
Observed 2026-10-08T14:45:48Z

Official NFL Week 4 game statistics ↗
Denver produced 40 J.K. Dobbins rushing yards while Courtland Sutton was held to four receiving yards in Week 4.
Observed 2026-10-06T14:15:15Z

Official NFL Week 4 game statistics ↗
Los Angeles produced 40 Justin Herbert rushing yards and 60 Tre Harris receiving yards in Week 4.
Observed 2026-10-06T14:15:15Z

RANKED BY OUR RESEARCH

Our 5 picks

These are our projected outcomes and yardage targets, not copied sportsbook lines. Percentages estimate each event’s chance, not our past accuracy. They are subjective and uncalibrated. A likely outcome is not automatically a good bet at any price. These are individual ideas, not a suggested parlay.

PICK 01 · CORE PLAY55%Estimated chance

J.K. Dobbins

35+ rushing yards

Our projection 48 yards

The threshold leaves room for normal weekly variance while preserving a meaningful role-based outcome. Week 4 is used as a role and workload anchor, not as a promise that one game repeats. The October 8 practice or final-status evidence is treated as a gate, not an inferred active designation.

Why this pick? Research & risks

Why this number?

UNCALIBRATED research judgment anchored to the player's current role, the official Week 4 game statistics and the October 8 role checkpoint in evidence and the matchup scenario. The 35+ yard threshold is an independently chosen Atlas outcome, not a copied sportsbook selection.

Subjective 55% event estimate rounded to five points. It weighs role, one-game statistical anchors, opponent structure, injury uncertainty and likely game script and current practice status. It is not an empirical hit rate, proven calibration or a betting-edge claim.

What could go wrong
  • Denver listed Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss as nonparticipants. The Chargers listed Rashawn Slater, Joe Alt, Derwin James and Ladd McConkey among their nonparticipants, with Quentin Johnston limited. No final game designations were available.
  • One prior game is a role anchor, not a stable distribution.
  • Turnovers, score state and opponent adjustments can redirect volume.
Injuries: provisionalInactives: pendingWeather: daily only
Inspect 4 source receipts
Official NFL Week 4 game statistics ↗

Denver produced 40 J.K. Dobbins rushing yards while Courtland Sutton was held to four receiving yards in Week 4.

Observed 2026-10-06T14:15:15Z
Official NFL Week 4 game statistics ↗

Los Angeles produced 40 Justin Herbert rushing yards and 60 Tre Harris receiving yards in Week 4.

Observed 2026-10-06T14:15:15Z
Official Week 5 injury and role checkpoint ↗

Denver listed Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss as nonparticipants. The Chargers listed Rashawn Slater, Joe Alt, Derwin James and Ladd McConkey among their nonparticipants, with Quentin Johnston limited. No final game designations were available.

Observed 2026-10-08T14:43:35Z
DraftKings public player-prop display ↗

The public player-prop display supplied price context only. It was not verified as executable and was not used to derive Atlas probabilities.

Observed 2026-10-08T14:45:48Z
FROZEN AT KICKOFFWIN
PICK 02 · CORE PLAY50%Estimated chance

J.K. Dobbins

Anytime touchdown

The threshold leaves room for normal weekly variance while preserving a meaningful role-based outcome. Week 4 is used as a role and workload anchor, not as a promise that one game repeats. The October 8 practice or final-status evidence is treated as a gate, not an inferred active designation.

Why this pick? Research & risks

Why this number?

UNCALIBRATED research judgment anchored to the player's current role, the official Week 4 game statistics and the October 8 role checkpoint in evidence and the matchup scenario. The scoring event is an independently chosen Atlas outcome, not a copied sportsbook selection.

Subjective 50% event estimate rounded to five points. It weighs role, one-game statistical anchors, opponent structure, injury uncertainty and likely game script and current practice status. It is not an empirical hit rate, proven calibration or a betting-edge claim.

What could go wrong
  • Denver listed Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss as nonparticipants. The Chargers listed Rashawn Slater, Joe Alt, Derwin James and Ladd McConkey among their nonparticipants, with Quentin Johnston limited. No final game designations were available.
  • One prior game is a role anchor, not a stable distribution.
  • Turnovers, score state and opponent adjustments can redirect volume.
Injuries: provisionalInactives: pendingWeather: daily only
Inspect 4 source receipts
Official NFL Week 4 game statistics ↗

Denver produced 40 J.K. Dobbins rushing yards while Courtland Sutton was held to four receiving yards in Week 4.

Observed 2026-10-06T14:15:15Z
Official NFL Week 4 game statistics ↗

Los Angeles produced 40 Justin Herbert rushing yards and 60 Tre Harris receiving yards in Week 4.

Observed 2026-10-06T14:15:15Z
Official Week 5 injury and role checkpoint ↗

Denver listed Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss as nonparticipants. The Chargers listed Rashawn Slater, Joe Alt, Derwin James and Ladd McConkey among their nonparticipants, with Quentin Johnston limited. No final game designations were available.

Observed 2026-10-08T14:43:35Z
DraftKings public player-prop display ↗

The public player-prop display supplied price context only. It was not verified as executable and was not used to derive Atlas probabilities.

Observed 2026-10-08T14:45:48Z
FROZEN AT KICKOFFWIN
PICK 03 · CORE PLAY50%Estimated chance

Courtland Sutton

25+ receiving yards

Our projection 39 yards

The threshold leaves room for normal weekly variance while preserving a meaningful role-based outcome. Week 4 is used as a role and workload anchor, not as a promise that one game repeats. The October 8 practice or final-status evidence is treated as a gate, not an inferred active designation.

Why this pick? Research & risks

Why this number?

UNCALIBRATED research judgment anchored to the player's current role, the official Week 4 game statistics and the October 8 role checkpoint in evidence and the matchup scenario. The 25+ yard threshold is an independently chosen Atlas outcome, not a copied sportsbook selection.

Subjective 50% event estimate rounded to five points. It weighs role, one-game statistical anchors, opponent structure, injury uncertainty and likely game script and current practice status. It is not an empirical hit rate, proven calibration or a betting-edge claim.

What could go wrong
  • Denver listed Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss as nonparticipants. The Chargers listed Rashawn Slater, Joe Alt, Derwin James and Ladd McConkey among their nonparticipants, with Quentin Johnston limited. No final game designations were available.
  • One prior game is a role anchor, not a stable distribution.
  • Turnovers, score state and opponent adjustments can redirect volume.
Injuries: provisionalInactives: pendingWeather: daily only
Inspect 4 source receipts
Official NFL Week 4 game statistics ↗

Denver produced 40 J.K. Dobbins rushing yards while Courtland Sutton was held to four receiving yards in Week 4.

Observed 2026-10-06T14:15:15Z
Official NFL Week 4 game statistics ↗

Los Angeles produced 40 Justin Herbert rushing yards and 60 Tre Harris receiving yards in Week 4.

Observed 2026-10-06T14:15:15Z
Official Week 5 injury and role checkpoint ↗

Denver listed Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss as nonparticipants. The Chargers listed Rashawn Slater, Joe Alt, Derwin James and Ladd McConkey among their nonparticipants, with Quentin Johnston limited. No final game designations were available.

Observed 2026-10-08T14:43:35Z
DraftKings public player-prop display ↗

The public player-prop display supplied price context only. It was not verified as executable and was not used to derive Atlas probabilities.

Observed 2026-10-08T14:45:48Z
FROZEN AT KICKOFFLOSS
PICK 04 · CORE PLAY55%Estimated chance

Justin Herbert

20+ rushing yards

Our projection 31 yards

The threshold leaves room for normal weekly variance while preserving a meaningful role-based outcome. Week 4 is used as a role and workload anchor, not as a promise that one game repeats. The October 8 practice or final-status evidence is treated as a gate, not an inferred active designation.

Why this pick? Research & risks

Why this number?

UNCALIBRATED research judgment anchored to the player's current role, the official Week 4 game statistics and the October 8 role checkpoint in evidence and the matchup scenario. The 20+ yard threshold is an independently chosen Atlas outcome, not a copied sportsbook selection.

Subjective 55% event estimate rounded to five points. It weighs role, one-game statistical anchors, opponent structure, injury uncertainty and likely game script and current practice status. It is not an empirical hit rate, proven calibration or a betting-edge claim.

What could go wrong
  • Denver listed Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss as nonparticipants. The Chargers listed Rashawn Slater, Joe Alt, Derwin James and Ladd McConkey among their nonparticipants, with Quentin Johnston limited. No final game designations were available.
  • One prior game is a role anchor, not a stable distribution.
  • Turnovers, score state and opponent adjustments can redirect volume.
Injuries: provisionalInactives: pendingWeather: daily only
Inspect 4 source receipts
Official NFL Week 4 game statistics ↗

Denver produced 40 J.K. Dobbins rushing yards while Courtland Sutton was held to four receiving yards in Week 4.

Observed 2026-10-06T14:15:15Z
Official NFL Week 4 game statistics ↗

Los Angeles produced 40 Justin Herbert rushing yards and 60 Tre Harris receiving yards in Week 4.

Observed 2026-10-06T14:15:15Z
Official Week 5 injury and role checkpoint ↗

Denver listed Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss as nonparticipants. The Chargers listed Rashawn Slater, Joe Alt, Derwin James and Ladd McConkey among their nonparticipants, with Quentin Johnston limited. No final game designations were available.

Observed 2026-10-08T14:43:35Z
DraftKings public player-prop display ↗

The public player-prop display supplied price context only. It was not verified as executable and was not used to derive Atlas probabilities.

Observed 2026-10-08T14:45:48Z
FROZEN AT KICKOFFWIN
PICK 05 · SLEEPER55%Estimated chance

Tre Harris

40+ receiving yards

Our projection 54 yards

The threshold leaves room for normal weekly variance while preserving a meaningful role-based outcome. Week 4 is used as a role and workload anchor, not as a promise that one game repeats. The October 8 practice or final-status evidence is treated as a gate, not an inferred active designation.

Why this pick? Research & risks

Why this number?

UNCALIBRATED research judgment anchored to the player's current role, the official Week 4 game statistics and the October 8 role checkpoint in evidence and the matchup scenario. The 40+ yard threshold is an independently chosen Atlas outcome, not a copied sportsbook selection.

Subjective 55% event estimate rounded to five points. It weighs role, one-game statistical anchors, opponent structure, injury uncertainty and likely game script and current practice status. It is not an empirical hit rate, proven calibration or a betting-edge claim.

What could go wrong
  • Denver listed Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss as nonparticipants. The Chargers listed Rashawn Slater, Joe Alt, Derwin James and Ladd McConkey among their nonparticipants, with Quentin Johnston limited. No final game designations were available.
  • One prior game is a role anchor, not a stable distribution.
  • Turnovers, score state and opponent adjustments can redirect volume.
Injuries: provisionalInactives: pendingWeather: daily only
Inspect 4 source receipts
Official NFL Week 4 game statistics ↗

Denver produced 40 J.K. Dobbins rushing yards while Courtland Sutton was held to four receiving yards in Week 4.

Observed 2026-10-06T14:15:15Z
Official NFL Week 4 game statistics ↗

Los Angeles produced 40 Justin Herbert rushing yards and 60 Tre Harris receiving yards in Week 4.

Observed 2026-10-06T14:15:15Z
Official Week 5 injury and role checkpoint ↗

Denver listed Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss as nonparticipants. The Chargers listed Rashawn Slater, Joe Alt, Derwin James and Ladd McConkey among their nonparticipants, with Quentin Johnston limited. No final game designations were available.

Observed 2026-10-08T14:43:35Z
DraftKings public player-prop display ↗

The public player-prop display supplied price context only. It was not verified as executable and was not used to derive Atlas probabilities.

Observed 2026-10-08T14:45:48Z
FROZEN AT KICKOFFLOSS
Forecast publication snapshot

Method: atlas-research-v2 · subjective research estimates
Published: 2026-10-08T15:11:42.000Z
Cutoff: 2026-10-11T20:05:00.000Z
Revision: 2026-w05-den-lac-research-v2-20261008-r1

SHA-256 e3e2827587d111595010a39b34d9a085e99f2155035b060fe857a835543099e9

Earlier revisions remain visible in the public record. Percentages, projected score and player targets freeze together.

Inspect the permanent record ↗