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WEEK 5 · KICKOFF PASSED

DET at ARI

DET at ARI
Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 PM EDT

Official schedule ↗
OUR PREDICTED WINNER

DET

DET 31 · ARI 27 projected score

65%Estimated win chance

Atlas projects DET 31, ARI 27. The forecast synthesizes official Week 4 role evidence, current injury uncertainty, the venue and daily weather outlook, and the displayed market as context without treating the market as proof.

Winner reasoning, risks and sources

UNCALIBRATED subjective research estimate rounded to five points. Detroit gets the quarterback stability edge in a matchup where both defenses still allow a credible shootout path.

  • Arizona stated that right guard Isaiah Adams will not play and Jon Gaines II will start. Jeremiyah Love was limited. Detroit opened practice windows for Brian Branch and Cade Mays, both limited. Final game-status tables were not yet available.
  • State Farm Stadium has a retractable roof, but no official game-specific roof decision was available. The NWS forecast called for showers and thunderstorms, a high near 85 degrees and gusts up to 30 mph if the roof remains open.
  • The operator-native public display is context, not a verified executable offer or evidence of an edge.

NFL official 2026 Week 5 schedule ↗
The official schedule lists DET at ARI with kickoff at 2026-10-11T20:25:00Z.
Observed 2026-10-08T14:43:35Z

Official Week 5 injury and role checkpoint ↗
Arizona stated that right guard Isaiah Adams will not play and Jon Gaines II will start. Jeremiyah Love was limited. Detroit opened practice windows for Brian Branch and Cade Mays, both limited. Final game-status tables were not yet available.
Observed 2026-10-08T14:43:35Z

Official venue and weather outlook ↗
State Farm Stadium has a retractable roof, but no official game-specific roof decision was available. The NWS forecast called for showers and thunderstorms, a high near 85 degrees and gusts up to 30 mph if the roof remains open.
Observed 2026-10-08T14:45:00Z

DraftKings operator-native public display ↗
Detroit -5.5 (-110), total 54.5, moneyline -258; Jahmyr Gibbs anytime touchdown -450. This was a public operator display, not a verified executable offer. No comparable movement was established.
Observed 2026-10-08T14:45:48Z

Official NFL Week 4 game statistics ↗
Detroit produced 46 Jahmyr Gibbs rushing yards with a touchdown and 75 Amon-Ra St. Brown receiving yards in Week 4.
Observed 2026-10-06T14:15:15Z

Official NFL Week 4 game statistics ↗
Arizona produced 95 Michael Wilson receiving yards and 31 Trey McBride receiving yards in Week 4.
Observed 2026-10-06T14:15:15Z

RANKED BY OUR RESEARCH

Our 5 picks

These are our projected outcomes and yardage targets, not copied sportsbook lines. Percentages estimate each event’s chance, not our past accuracy. They are subjective and uncalibrated. A likely outcome is not automatically a good bet at any price. These are individual ideas, not a suggested parlay.

PICK 01 · CORE PLAY60%Estimated chance

Jahmyr Gibbs

40+ rushing yards

Our projection 55 yards

The threshold leaves room for normal weekly variance while preserving a meaningful role-based outcome. Week 4 is used as a role and workload anchor, not as a promise that one game repeats. The October 8 practice or final-status evidence is treated as a gate, not an inferred active designation.

Why this pick? Research & risks

Why this number?

UNCALIBRATED research judgment anchored to the player's current role, the official Week 4 game statistics and the October 8 role checkpoint in evidence and the matchup scenario. The 40+ yard threshold is an independently chosen Atlas outcome, not a copied sportsbook selection.

Subjective 60% event estimate rounded to five points. It weighs role, one-game statistical anchors, opponent structure, injury uncertainty and likely game script and current practice status. It is not an empirical hit rate, proven calibration or a betting-edge claim.

What could go wrong
  • Arizona stated that right guard Isaiah Adams will not play and Jon Gaines II will start. Jeremiyah Love was limited. Detroit opened practice windows for Brian Branch and Cade Mays, both limited. Final game-status tables were not yet available.
  • One prior game is a role anchor, not a stable distribution.
  • Turnovers, score state and opponent adjustments can redirect volume.
Injuries: provisionalInactives: pendingWeather: daily only
Inspect 4 source receipts
Official NFL Week 4 game statistics ↗

Detroit produced 46 Jahmyr Gibbs rushing yards with a touchdown and 75 Amon-Ra St. Brown receiving yards in Week 4.

Observed 2026-10-06T14:15:15Z
Official NFL Week 4 game statistics ↗

Arizona produced 95 Michael Wilson receiving yards and 31 Trey McBride receiving yards in Week 4.

Observed 2026-10-06T14:15:15Z
Official Week 5 injury and role checkpoint ↗

Arizona stated that right guard Isaiah Adams will not play and Jon Gaines II will start. Jeremiyah Love was limited. Detroit opened practice windows for Brian Branch and Cade Mays, both limited. Final game-status tables were not yet available.

Observed 2026-10-08T14:43:35Z
DraftKings public player-prop display ↗

The public player-prop display supplied price context only. It was not verified as executable and was not used to derive Atlas probabilities.

Observed 2026-10-08T14:45:48Z
FROZEN AT KICKOFFWIN
PICK 02 · CORE PLAY65%Estimated chance

Jahmyr Gibbs

Anytime touchdown

The threshold leaves room for normal weekly variance while preserving a meaningful role-based outcome. Week 4 is used as a role and workload anchor, not as a promise that one game repeats. The October 8 practice or final-status evidence is treated as a gate, not an inferred active designation.

Why this pick? Research & risks

Why this number?

UNCALIBRATED research judgment anchored to the player's current role, the official Week 4 game statistics and the October 8 role checkpoint in evidence and the matchup scenario. The scoring event is an independently chosen Atlas outcome, not a copied sportsbook selection.

Subjective 65% event estimate rounded to five points. It weighs role, one-game statistical anchors, opponent structure, injury uncertainty and likely game script and current practice status. It is not an empirical hit rate, proven calibration or a betting-edge claim.

What could go wrong
  • Arizona stated that right guard Isaiah Adams will not play and Jon Gaines II will start. Jeremiyah Love was limited. Detroit opened practice windows for Brian Branch and Cade Mays, both limited. Final game-status tables were not yet available.
  • One prior game is a role anchor, not a stable distribution.
  • Turnovers, score state and opponent adjustments can redirect volume.
Injuries: provisionalInactives: pendingWeather: daily only
Inspect 4 source receipts
Official NFL Week 4 game statistics ↗

Detroit produced 46 Jahmyr Gibbs rushing yards with a touchdown and 75 Amon-Ra St. Brown receiving yards in Week 4.

Observed 2026-10-06T14:15:15Z
Official NFL Week 4 game statistics ↗

Arizona produced 95 Michael Wilson receiving yards and 31 Trey McBride receiving yards in Week 4.

Observed 2026-10-06T14:15:15Z
Official Week 5 injury and role checkpoint ↗

Arizona stated that right guard Isaiah Adams will not play and Jon Gaines II will start. Jeremiyah Love was limited. Detroit opened practice windows for Brian Branch and Cade Mays, both limited. Final game-status tables were not yet available.

Observed 2026-10-08T14:43:35Z
DraftKings public player-prop display ↗

The public player-prop display supplied price context only. It was not verified as executable and was not used to derive Atlas probabilities.

Observed 2026-10-08T14:45:48Z
FROZEN AT KICKOFFWIN
PICK 03 · CORE PLAY60%Estimated chance

Amon-Ra St. Brown

65+ receiving yards

Our projection 79 yards

The threshold leaves room for normal weekly variance while preserving a meaningful role-based outcome. Week 4 is used as a role and workload anchor, not as a promise that one game repeats. The October 8 practice or final-status evidence is treated as a gate, not an inferred active designation.

Why this pick? Research & risks

Why this number?

UNCALIBRATED research judgment anchored to the player's current role, the official Week 4 game statistics and the October 8 role checkpoint in evidence and the matchup scenario. The 65+ yard threshold is an independently chosen Atlas outcome, not a copied sportsbook selection.

Subjective 60% event estimate rounded to five points. It weighs role, one-game statistical anchors, opponent structure, injury uncertainty and likely game script and current practice status. It is not an empirical hit rate, proven calibration or a betting-edge claim.

What could go wrong
  • Arizona stated that right guard Isaiah Adams will not play and Jon Gaines II will start. Jeremiyah Love was limited. Detroit opened practice windows for Brian Branch and Cade Mays, both limited. Final game-status tables were not yet available.
  • One prior game is a role anchor, not a stable distribution.
  • Turnovers, score state and opponent adjustments can redirect volume.
Injuries: provisionalInactives: pendingWeather: daily only
Inspect 4 source receipts
Official NFL Week 4 game statistics ↗

Detroit produced 46 Jahmyr Gibbs rushing yards with a touchdown and 75 Amon-Ra St. Brown receiving yards in Week 4.

Observed 2026-10-06T14:15:15Z
Official NFL Week 4 game statistics ↗

Arizona produced 95 Michael Wilson receiving yards and 31 Trey McBride receiving yards in Week 4.

Observed 2026-10-06T14:15:15Z
Official Week 5 injury and role checkpoint ↗

Arizona stated that right guard Isaiah Adams will not play and Jon Gaines II will start. Jeremiyah Love was limited. Detroit opened practice windows for Brian Branch and Cade Mays, both limited. Final game-status tables were not yet available.

Observed 2026-10-08T14:43:35Z
DraftKings public player-prop display ↗

The public player-prop display supplied price context only. It was not verified as executable and was not used to derive Atlas probabilities.

Observed 2026-10-08T14:45:48Z
FROZEN AT KICKOFFWIN
PICK 04 · CORE PLAY55%Estimated chance

Trey McBride

55+ receiving yards

Our projection 70 yards

The threshold leaves room for normal weekly variance while preserving a meaningful role-based outcome. Week 4 is used as a role and workload anchor, not as a promise that one game repeats. The October 8 practice or final-status evidence is treated as a gate, not an inferred active designation.

Why this pick? Research & risks

Why this number?

UNCALIBRATED research judgment anchored to the player's current role, the official Week 4 game statistics and the October 8 role checkpoint in evidence and the matchup scenario. The 55+ yard threshold is an independently chosen Atlas outcome, not a copied sportsbook selection.

Subjective 55% event estimate rounded to five points. It weighs role, one-game statistical anchors, opponent structure, injury uncertainty and likely game script and current practice status. It is not an empirical hit rate, proven calibration or a betting-edge claim.

What could go wrong
  • Arizona stated that right guard Isaiah Adams will not play and Jon Gaines II will start. Jeremiyah Love was limited. Detroit opened practice windows for Brian Branch and Cade Mays, both limited. Final game-status tables were not yet available.
  • One prior game is a role anchor, not a stable distribution.
  • Turnovers, score state and opponent adjustments can redirect volume.
Injuries: provisionalInactives: pendingWeather: daily only
Inspect 4 source receipts
Official NFL Week 4 game statistics ↗

Detroit produced 46 Jahmyr Gibbs rushing yards with a touchdown and 75 Amon-Ra St. Brown receiving yards in Week 4.

Observed 2026-10-06T14:15:15Z
Official NFL Week 4 game statistics ↗

Arizona produced 95 Michael Wilson receiving yards and 31 Trey McBride receiving yards in Week 4.

Observed 2026-10-06T14:15:15Z
Official Week 5 injury and role checkpoint ↗

Arizona stated that right guard Isaiah Adams will not play and Jon Gaines II will start. Jeremiyah Love was limited. Detroit opened practice windows for Brian Branch and Cade Mays, both limited. Final game-status tables were not yet available.

Observed 2026-10-08T14:43:35Z
DraftKings public player-prop display ↗

The public player-prop display supplied price context only. It was not verified as executable and was not used to derive Atlas probabilities.

Observed 2026-10-08T14:45:48Z
FROZEN AT KICKOFFWIN
PICK 05 · SLEEPER55%Estimated chance

Michael Wilson

60+ receiving yards

Our projection 75 yards

The threshold leaves room for normal weekly variance while preserving a meaningful role-based outcome. Week 4 is used as a role and workload anchor, not as a promise that one game repeats. The October 8 practice or final-status evidence is treated as a gate, not an inferred active designation.

Why this pick? Research & risks

Why this number?

UNCALIBRATED research judgment anchored to the player's current role, the official Week 4 game statistics and the October 8 role checkpoint in evidence and the matchup scenario. The 60+ yard threshold is an independently chosen Atlas outcome, not a copied sportsbook selection.

Subjective 55% event estimate rounded to five points. It weighs role, one-game statistical anchors, opponent structure, injury uncertainty and likely game script and current practice status. It is not an empirical hit rate, proven calibration or a betting-edge claim.

What could go wrong
  • Arizona stated that right guard Isaiah Adams will not play and Jon Gaines II will start. Jeremiyah Love was limited. Detroit opened practice windows for Brian Branch and Cade Mays, both limited. Final game-status tables were not yet available.
  • One prior game is a role anchor, not a stable distribution.
  • Turnovers, score state and opponent adjustments can redirect volume.
Injuries: provisionalInactives: pendingWeather: daily only
Inspect 4 source receipts
Official NFL Week 4 game statistics ↗

Detroit produced 46 Jahmyr Gibbs rushing yards with a touchdown and 75 Amon-Ra St. Brown receiving yards in Week 4.

Observed 2026-10-06T14:15:15Z
Official NFL Week 4 game statistics ↗

Arizona produced 95 Michael Wilson receiving yards and 31 Trey McBride receiving yards in Week 4.

Observed 2026-10-06T14:15:15Z
Official Week 5 injury and role checkpoint ↗

Arizona stated that right guard Isaiah Adams will not play and Jon Gaines II will start. Jeremiyah Love was limited. Detroit opened practice windows for Brian Branch and Cade Mays, both limited. Final game-status tables were not yet available.

Observed 2026-10-08T14:43:35Z
DraftKings public player-prop display ↗

The public player-prop display supplied price context only. It was not verified as executable and was not used to derive Atlas probabilities.

Observed 2026-10-08T14:45:48Z
FROZEN AT KICKOFFLOSS
Forecast publication snapshot

Method: atlas-research-v2 · subjective research estimates
Published: 2026-10-08T15:11:42.000Z
Cutoff: 2026-10-11T20:25:00.000Z
Revision: 2026-w05-det-ari-research-v2-20261008-r1

SHA-256 0d886b1920e5d89beaf96970a6fee6c5b3df41eb14655d85d294c3e1195c36eb

Earlier revisions remain visible in the public record. Percentages, projected score and player targets freeze together.

Inspect the permanent record ↗