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WEEK 5 · KICKOFF PASSED

NYG at WAS

NYG at WAS
Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM EDT

Official schedule ↗
OUR PREDICTED WINNER

WAS

NYG 20 · WAS 24 projected score

60%Estimated win chance

Atlas updates the score from WAS 27, NYG 24 to WAS 24, NYG 20 while keeping Washington at 60%. Daniels returning supports the favorite. Diggs' absence and the wet, windy nearby forecast reduce the clean passing ceiling.

Winner reasoning, risks and sources

UNCALIBRATED subjective research estimate rounded to five points. Jayden Daniels is cleared to start, while Stefon Diggs is out and substantial rain and wind are possible. Washington remains the lean, with the total projection reduced.

  • Washington confirmed Jayden Daniels will start, ruled out Stefon Diggs and Marcus Mariota, and listed Terry McLaurin questionable. Treylon Burks practiced fully. Final inactive lists remain pending.
  • A nearby point forecast called for showers, possible thunder, east wind 13 to 15 mph with gusts to 28 mph and 0.75 to 1 inch of rain. It is not an exact stadium-point forecast, so the scoring adjustment remains cautious.
  • The page was stamped October 9 at 9:38 a.m. ET and attributes its displayed odds to DraftKings. It is a dated publisher display, not a verified live or executable offer on October 10.

NFL official 2026 Week 5 schedule ↗
The official schedule lists the Week 5 Sunday and Monday kickoffs, including PHI at JAX at 2026-10-11T13:30:00Z.
Observed 2026-10-10T14:49:00Z

Official Commanders Week 5 game status ↗
Washington confirmed Jayden Daniels will start, ruled out Stefon Diggs and Marcus Mariota, and listed Terry McLaurin questionable. Treylon Burks practiced fully. Final inactive lists remain pending.
Observed 2026-10-10T14:49:00Z

Official Jacory Croskey-Merritt 2026 game log ↗
Croskey-Merritt had two catches for 35 receiving yards in Week 4 and remained listed atop the official depth chart entering Week 5. The 20-yard receiving threshold is an independent Atlas outcome.
Observed 2026-10-10T15:05:00Z

National Weather Service Washington area forecast ↗
A nearby point forecast called for showers, possible thunder, east wind 13 to 15 mph with gusts to 28 mph and 0.75 to 1 inch of rain. It is not an exact stadium-point forecast, so the scoring adjustment remains cautious.
Observed 2026-10-10T14:49:00Z

CBS Week 5 odds page attributed to DraftKings ↗
The page was stamped October 9 at 9:38 a.m. ET and attributes its displayed odds to DraftKings. It is a dated publisher display, not a verified live or executable offer on October 10.
Observed 2026-10-10T14:53:58Z

Official NFL Week 4 game statistics ↗
New York produced 58 Cam Skattebo rushing yards and 112 Malik Nabers receiving yards in Week 4.
Observed 2026-10-06T14:15:15Z

Official NFL Week 4 game statistics ↗
Washington produced 35 Stefon Diggs receiving yards while its quarterback situation changed during Week 4.
Observed 2026-10-06T14:15:15Z

RANKED BY OUR RESEARCH

Our 5 picks

These are our projected outcomes and yardage targets, not copied sportsbook lines. Percentages estimate each event’s chance, not our past accuracy. They are subjective and uncalibrated. A likely outcome is not automatically a good bet at any price. These are individual ideas, not a suggested parlay.

PICK 01 · CORE PLAY55%Estimated chance

Cam Skattebo

45+ rushing yards

Our projection 58 yards

The threshold leaves room for normal weekly variance while preserving a meaningful role-based outcome. Week 4 is used as a role and workload anchor, not as a promise that one game repeats. The October 8 practice or final-status evidence is treated as a gate, not an inferred active designation.

Why this pick? Research & risks

Why this number?

UNCALIBRATED research judgment anchored to the player's current role, the official Week 4 game statistics and the October 8 role checkpoint in evidence and the matchup scenario. The 45+ yard threshold is an independently chosen Atlas outcome, not a copied sportsbook selection.

Subjective 55% event estimate rounded to five points. It weighs role, one-game statistical anchors, opponent structure, injury uncertainty and likely game script and current practice status. It is not an empirical hit rate, proven calibration or a betting-edge claim.

What could go wrong
  • Washington confirmed Jayden Daniels will start, ruled out Stefon Diggs and Marcus Mariota, and listed Terry McLaurin questionable. Treylon Burks practiced fully. Final inactive lists remain pending.
  • Final inactive lists remain pending.
  • Turnovers, score state and opponent adjustments can redirect volume.
Injuries: finalInactives: pendingWeather: daily only
Inspect 5 source receipts
Official NFL Week 4 game statistics ↗

New York produced 58 Cam Skattebo rushing yards and 112 Malik Nabers receiving yards in Week 4.

Observed 2026-10-06T14:15:15Z
Official NFL Week 4 game statistics ↗

Washington produced 35 Stefon Diggs receiving yards while its quarterback situation changed during Week 4.

Observed 2026-10-06T14:15:15Z
DraftKings public player-prop display ↗

The public player-prop display supplied price context only. It was not verified as executable and was not used to derive Atlas probabilities.

Observed 2026-10-08T14:45:48Z
Official Commanders Week 5 game status ↗

Washington confirmed Jayden Daniels will start, ruled out Stefon Diggs and Marcus Mariota, and listed Terry McLaurin questionable. Treylon Burks practiced fully. Final inactive lists remain pending.

Observed 2026-10-10T14:49:00Z
National Weather Service Washington area forecast ↗

A nearby point forecast called for showers, possible thunder, east wind 13 to 15 mph with gusts to 28 mph and 0.75 to 1 inch of rain. It is not an exact stadium-point forecast, so the scoring adjustment remains cautious.

Observed 2026-10-10T14:49:00Z
FROZEN AT KICKOFFWIN
PICK 02 · CORE PLAY60%Estimated chance

Malik Nabers

80+ receiving yards

Our projection 96 yards

The threshold leaves room for normal weekly variance while preserving a meaningful role-based outcome. Week 4 is used as a role and workload anchor, not as a promise that one game repeats. The October 8 practice or final-status evidence is treated as a gate, not an inferred active designation.

Why this pick? Research & risks

Why this number?

UNCALIBRATED research judgment anchored to the player's current role, the official Week 4 game statistics and the October 8 role checkpoint in evidence and the matchup scenario. The 80+ yard threshold is an independently chosen Atlas outcome, not a copied sportsbook selection.

Subjective 60% event estimate rounded to five points. It weighs role, one-game statistical anchors, opponent structure, injury uncertainty and likely game script and current practice status. It is not an empirical hit rate, proven calibration or a betting-edge claim.

What could go wrong
  • Washington confirmed Jayden Daniels will start, ruled out Stefon Diggs and Marcus Mariota, and listed Terry McLaurin questionable. Treylon Burks practiced fully. Final inactive lists remain pending.
  • Final inactive lists remain pending.
  • Turnovers, score state and opponent adjustments can redirect volume.
Injuries: finalInactives: pendingWeather: daily only
Inspect 5 source receipts
Official NFL Week 4 game statistics ↗

New York produced 58 Cam Skattebo rushing yards and 112 Malik Nabers receiving yards in Week 4.

Observed 2026-10-06T14:15:15Z
Official NFL Week 4 game statistics ↗

Washington produced 35 Stefon Diggs receiving yards while its quarterback situation changed during Week 4.

Observed 2026-10-06T14:15:15Z
DraftKings public player-prop display ↗

The public player-prop display supplied price context only. It was not verified as executable and was not used to derive Atlas probabilities.

Observed 2026-10-08T14:45:48Z
Official Commanders Week 5 game status ↗

Washington confirmed Jayden Daniels will start, ruled out Stefon Diggs and Marcus Mariota, and listed Terry McLaurin questionable. Treylon Burks practiced fully. Final inactive lists remain pending.

Observed 2026-10-10T14:49:00Z
National Weather Service Washington area forecast ↗

A nearby point forecast called for showers, possible thunder, east wind 13 to 15 mph with gusts to 28 mph and 0.75 to 1 inch of rain. It is not an exact stadium-point forecast, so the scoring adjustment remains cautious.

Observed 2026-10-10T14:49:00Z
FROZEN AT KICKOFFWIN
PICK 03 · CORE PLAY50%Estimated chance

Jayden Daniels

35+ rushing yards

Our projection 48 yards

The threshold leaves room for normal weekly variance while preserving a meaningful role-based outcome. Week 4 is used as a role and workload anchor, not as a promise that one game repeats. The October 8 practice or final-status evidence is treated as a gate, not an inferred active designation.

Why this pick? Research & risks

Why this number?

UNCALIBRATED research judgment anchored to the player's current role, the official Week 4 game statistics and the October 8 role checkpoint in evidence and the matchup scenario. The 35+ yard threshold is an independently chosen Atlas outcome, not a copied sportsbook selection.

Subjective 50% event estimate rounded to five points. It weighs role, one-game statistical anchors, opponent structure, injury uncertainty and likely game script and current practice status. It is not an empirical hit rate, proven calibration or a betting-edge claim.

What could go wrong
  • Washington confirmed Jayden Daniels will start, ruled out Stefon Diggs and Marcus Mariota, and listed Terry McLaurin questionable. Treylon Burks practiced fully. Final inactive lists remain pending.
  • Final inactive lists remain pending.
  • Turnovers, score state and opponent adjustments can redirect volume.
Injuries: finalInactives: pendingWeather: daily only
Inspect 5 source receipts
Official NFL Week 4 game statistics ↗

New York produced 58 Cam Skattebo rushing yards and 112 Malik Nabers receiving yards in Week 4.

Observed 2026-10-06T14:15:15Z
Official NFL Week 4 game statistics ↗

Washington produced 35 Stefon Diggs receiving yards while its quarterback situation changed during Week 4.

Observed 2026-10-06T14:15:15Z
DraftKings public player-prop display ↗

The public player-prop display supplied price context only. It was not verified as executable and was not used to derive Atlas probabilities.

Observed 2026-10-08T14:45:48Z
Official Commanders Week 5 game status ↗

Washington confirmed Jayden Daniels will start, ruled out Stefon Diggs and Marcus Mariota, and listed Terry McLaurin questionable. Treylon Burks practiced fully. Final inactive lists remain pending.

Observed 2026-10-10T14:49:00Z
National Weather Service Washington area forecast ↗

A nearby point forecast called for showers, possible thunder, east wind 13 to 15 mph with gusts to 28 mph and 0.75 to 1 inch of rain. It is not an exact stadium-point forecast, so the scoring adjustment remains cautious.

Observed 2026-10-10T14:49:00Z
FROZEN AT KICKOFFWIN
PICK 04 · CORE PLAY50%Estimated chance

Terry McLaurin

55+ receiving yards

Our projection 69 yards

The threshold leaves room for normal weekly variance while preserving a meaningful role-based outcome. Week 4 is used as a role and workload anchor, not as a promise that one game repeats. The October 8 practice or final-status evidence is treated as a gate, not an inferred active designation.

Why this pick? Research & risks

Why this number?

UNCALIBRATED research judgment anchored to the player's current role, the official Week 4 game statistics and the October 8 role checkpoint in evidence and the matchup scenario. The 55+ yard threshold is an independently chosen Atlas outcome, not a copied sportsbook selection.

Subjective 50% event estimate rounded to five points. It weighs role, one-game statistical anchors, opponent structure, injury uncertainty and likely game script and current practice status. It is not an empirical hit rate, proven calibration or a betting-edge claim.

What could go wrong
  • Washington confirmed Jayden Daniels will start, ruled out Stefon Diggs and Marcus Mariota, and listed Terry McLaurin questionable. Treylon Burks practiced fully. Final inactive lists remain pending.
  • Final inactive lists remain pending.
  • Turnovers, score state and opponent adjustments can redirect volume.
Injuries: finalInactives: pendingWeather: daily only
Inspect 5 source receipts
Official NFL Week 4 game statistics ↗

New York produced 58 Cam Skattebo rushing yards and 112 Malik Nabers receiving yards in Week 4.

Observed 2026-10-06T14:15:15Z
Official NFL Week 4 game statistics ↗

Washington produced 35 Stefon Diggs receiving yards while its quarterback situation changed during Week 4.

Observed 2026-10-06T14:15:15Z
DraftKings public player-prop display ↗

The public player-prop display supplied price context only. It was not verified as executable and was not used to derive Atlas probabilities.

Observed 2026-10-08T14:45:48Z
Official Commanders Week 5 game status ↗

Washington confirmed Jayden Daniels will start, ruled out Stefon Diggs and Marcus Mariota, and listed Terry McLaurin questionable. Treylon Burks practiced fully. Final inactive lists remain pending.

Observed 2026-10-10T14:49:00Z
National Weather Service Washington area forecast ↗

A nearby point forecast called for showers, possible thunder, east wind 13 to 15 mph with gusts to 28 mph and 0.75 to 1 inch of rain. It is not an exact stadium-point forecast, so the scoring adjustment remains cautious.

Observed 2026-10-10T14:49:00Z
FROZEN AT KICKOFFWIN
PICK 05 · SLEEPER50%Estimated chance

Jacory Croskey-Merritt

20+ receiving yards

Our projection 28 yards

The weather and Diggs absence make short throws to the lead back a plausible counterpath. Twenty receiving yards requires involvement without pretending one 35-yard Week 4 reception line is a stable distribution.

Why this pick? Research & risks

Why this number?

UNCALIBRATED research judgment anchored to two catches for 35 yards in Week 4, his lead depth-chart role and the removal of Stefon Diggs from the available passing group. The 20+ yard threshold is independently chosen.

Subjective 50% event estimate rounded to five points. It weighs backfield route access, short-area utility in possible rain, Daniels' return and volatile target allocation. It is not an empirical hit rate, proven calibration or betting-edge claim.

What could go wrong
  • Washington confirmed Jayden Daniels will start, ruled out Stefon Diggs and Marcus Mariota, and listed Terry McLaurin questionable. Treylon Burks practiced fully. Final inactive lists remain pending.
  • A nearby point forecast called for showers, possible thunder, east wind 13 to 15 mph with gusts to 28 mph and 0.75 to 1 inch of rain. It is not an exact stadium-point forecast, so the scoring adjustment remains cautious.
  • Final inactives and Washington's exact target redistribution remain pending.
Injuries: finalInactives: pendingWeather: daily only
Inspect 3 source receipts
Official Commanders Week 5 game status ↗

Washington confirmed Jayden Daniels will start, ruled out Stefon Diggs and Marcus Mariota, and listed Terry McLaurin questionable. Treylon Burks practiced fully. Final inactive lists remain pending.

Observed 2026-10-10T14:49:00Z
Official Jacory Croskey-Merritt 2026 game log ↗

Croskey-Merritt had two catches for 35 receiving yards in Week 4 and remained listed atop the official depth chart entering Week 5. The 20-yard receiving threshold is an independent Atlas outcome.

Observed 2026-10-10T15:05:00Z
National Weather Service Washington area forecast ↗

A nearby point forecast called for showers, possible thunder, east wind 13 to 15 mph with gusts to 28 mph and 0.75 to 1 inch of rain. It is not an exact stadium-point forecast, so the scoring adjustment remains cautious.

Observed 2026-10-10T14:49:00Z
FROZEN AT KICKOFFLOSS
Forecast publication snapshot

Method: atlas-research-v2 · subjective research estimates
Published: 2026-10-10T15:14:49.000Z
Cutoff: 2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z
Revision: 2026-w05-nyg-was-research-v2-20261010-r2

SHA-256 5576c6854af283ff12fc08ee3932311714501511131bb4c00ea8831b597924ce

Earlier revisions remain visible in the public record. Percentages, projected score and player targets freeze together.

Inspect the permanent record ↗