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WEEK 6 · KICKOFF PASSED

HOU at JAX

HOU at JAX
Sun, Oct 18, 9:30 AM EDT

Official schedule ↗
OUR PREDICTED WINNER

JAX

HOU 20 · JAX 23 projected score

55%Estimated win chance

The JAX path remains the stronger Wednesday scenario, but the estimate stays provisional because final game statuses, inactive lists and exact kickoff conditions do not yet exist.

Winner reasoning, risks and sources

UNCALIBRATED subjective research estimate rounded to five points. Atlas projects HOU 20, JAX 23 after weighing drive efficiency, role stability, venue, early weather and the displayed market.

  • Houston listed David Montgomery and Jalen Pitre week to week. Jacksonville placed Anton Harrison on injured reserve. Neither club had posted a Week 6 practice report, so all other availability remains unknown.
  • The Met Office four-day outlook around kickoff shows sunny intervals near 14 C, a 20 to 30 percent precipitation chance and light wind. Wembley's roof does not cover the playing surface.
  • The current DraftKings publisher display was JAX -3 (+100), HOU +3 (-120); total 42.5 with over -118 and under -102; JAX -148, HOU +124. Executability was not verified.

NFL official 2026 Week 6 schedule ↗
The official NFL schedule lists HOU at JAX for 2026-10-18T13:30:00Z at Wembley Stadium.
Observed 2026-10-14T14:46:48Z

Official HOU at JAX Week 6 game center ↗
The official game center is the primary matchup record. Final game statuses and inactive lists were not available at the observation time and remain pending.
Observed 2026-10-14T14:46:48Z

Official Week 6 availability checkpoint ↗
Houston listed David Montgomery and Jalen Pitre week to week. Jacksonville placed Anton Harrison on injured reserve. Neither club had posted a Week 6 practice report, so all other availability remains unknown.
Observed 2026-10-14T14:46:48Z

Current venue and kickoff-weather checkpoint ↗
The Met Office four-day outlook around kickoff shows sunny intervals near 14 C, a 20 to 30 percent precipitation chance and light wind. Wembley's roof does not cover the playing surface.
Observed 2026-10-14T14:46:48Z

DraftKings Week 6 publisher-displayed board ↗
The current operator-hosted publisher display showed JAX -3 (+100), HOU +3 (-120); total 42.5 with over -118 and under -102; JAX -148, HOU +124. DraftKings warns values can differ by location. No logged-in offer was tested, so this is not labeled executable.
Observed 2026-10-14T14:46:48Z

DraftKings Oct. 13 to Oct. 14 comparable display ↗
CBS published a DraftKings-attributed Week 6 board on October 13 at 17:05 UTC. Comparison with the October 14 DraftKings operator-hosted publisher display is used only where the same game and market are available. It is displayed movement, not a claim of executable price history.
Observed 2026-10-14T14:46:48Z

Week 6 matchup role and efficiency table ↗
The role table was used as a Tuesday countercheck for snap share, opportunity and drive-efficiency context. It labels starters and market data as provisional, so final availability is not inferred.
Observed 2026-10-14T14:46:48Z

RANKED BY OUR RESEARCH

Our 5 picks

These are our projected outcomes and yardage targets, not copied sportsbook lines. Percentages estimate each event’s chance, not our past accuracy. They are subjective and uncalibrated. A likely outcome is not automatically a good bet at any price. These are individual ideas, not a suggested parlay.

PICK 01 · CORE PLAY55%Estimated chance

Nico Collins

55+ receiving yards

Our projection 72 yards

The forecast gives Nico Collins a supported path to 55+ receiving yards without treating one prior result or a displayed market as destiny.

Why this pick? Research & risks

Why this number?

UNCALIBRATED research judgment anchored to the player's current role, matchup usage path and the independently chosen 55+ receiving-yard threshold. Current role evidence is paired with provisional availability.

Subjective 55% event estimate rounded to five points. It weighs role, opponent structure, projected game script and uncertainty. It is not an empirical hit rate, proven calibration or betting-edge claim.

What could go wrong
  • Houston listed David Montgomery and Jalen Pitre week to week. Jacksonville placed Anton Harrison on injured reserve. Neither club had posted a Week 6 practice report, so all other availability remains unknown.
  • Volume can move with turnovers, score state and opponent adjustments.
  • The Met Office four-day outlook around kickoff shows sunny intervals near 14 C, a 20 to 30 percent precipitation chance and light wind. Wembley's roof does not cover the playing surface.
Injuries: provisionalInactives: pendingWeather: daily only
Inspect 4 source receipts
Official HOU at JAX Week 6 game center ↗

The official game center is the primary matchup record. Final game statuses and inactive lists were not available at the observation time and remain pending.

Observed 2026-10-14T14:46:48Z
Official Week 6 availability checkpoint ↗

Houston listed David Montgomery and Jalen Pitre week to week. Jacksonville placed Anton Harrison on injured reserve. Neither club had posted a Week 6 practice report, so all other availability remains unknown.

Observed 2026-10-14T14:46:48Z
Current venue and kickoff-weather checkpoint ↗

The Met Office four-day outlook around kickoff shows sunny intervals near 14 C, a 20 to 30 percent precipitation chance and light wind. Wembley's roof does not cover the playing surface.

Observed 2026-10-14T14:46:48Z
Week 6 matchup role and efficiency table ↗

The role table was used as a Tuesday countercheck for snap share, opportunity and drive-efficiency context. It labels starters and market data as provisional, so final availability is not inferred.

Observed 2026-10-14T14:46:48Z
FROZEN AT KICKOFFWIN
PICK 02 · CORE PLAY55%Estimated chance

Kayshon Boutte

35+ receiving yards

Our projection 48 yards

The forecast gives Kayshon Boutte a supported path to 35+ receiving yards without treating one prior result or a displayed market as destiny.

Why this pick? Research & risks

Why this number?

UNCALIBRATED research judgment anchored to the player's current role, matchup usage path and the independently chosen 35+ receiving-yard threshold. Current role evidence is paired with provisional availability.

Subjective 55% event estimate rounded to five points. It weighs role, opponent structure, projected game script and uncertainty. It is not an empirical hit rate, proven calibration or betting-edge claim.

What could go wrong
  • Houston listed David Montgomery and Jalen Pitre week to week. Jacksonville placed Anton Harrison on injured reserve. Neither club had posted a Week 6 practice report, so all other availability remains unknown.
  • Volume can move with turnovers, score state and opponent adjustments.
  • The Met Office four-day outlook around kickoff shows sunny intervals near 14 C, a 20 to 30 percent precipitation chance and light wind. Wembley's roof does not cover the playing surface.
Injuries: provisionalInactives: pendingWeather: daily only
Inspect 4 source receipts
Official HOU at JAX Week 6 game center ↗

The official game center is the primary matchup record. Final game statuses and inactive lists were not available at the observation time and remain pending.

Observed 2026-10-14T14:46:48Z
Official Week 6 availability checkpoint ↗

Houston listed David Montgomery and Jalen Pitre week to week. Jacksonville placed Anton Harrison on injured reserve. Neither club had posted a Week 6 practice report, so all other availability remains unknown.

Observed 2026-10-14T14:46:48Z
Current venue and kickoff-weather checkpoint ↗

The Met Office four-day outlook around kickoff shows sunny intervals near 14 C, a 20 to 30 percent precipitation chance and light wind. Wembley's roof does not cover the playing surface.

Observed 2026-10-14T14:46:48Z
Week 6 matchup role and efficiency table ↗

The role table was used as a Tuesday countercheck for snap share, opportunity and drive-efficiency context. It labels starters and market data as provisional, so final availability is not inferred.

Observed 2026-10-14T14:46:48Z
FROZEN AT KICKOFFLOSS
PICK 03 · CORE PLAY55%Estimated chance

Dalton Schultz

25+ receiving yards

Our projection 36 yards

The forecast gives Dalton Schultz a supported path to 25+ receiving yards without treating one prior result or a displayed market as destiny.

Why this pick? Research & risks

Why this number?

UNCALIBRATED research judgment anchored to the player's current role, matchup usage path and the independently chosen 25+ receiving-yard threshold. Current role evidence is paired with provisional availability.

Subjective 55% event estimate rounded to five points. It weighs role, opponent structure, projected game script and uncertainty. It is not an empirical hit rate, proven calibration or betting-edge claim.

What could go wrong
  • Houston listed David Montgomery and Jalen Pitre week to week. Jacksonville placed Anton Harrison on injured reserve. Neither club had posted a Week 6 practice report, so all other availability remains unknown.
  • Volume can move with turnovers, score state and opponent adjustments.
  • The Met Office four-day outlook around kickoff shows sunny intervals near 14 C, a 20 to 30 percent precipitation chance and light wind. Wembley's roof does not cover the playing surface.
Injuries: provisionalInactives: pendingWeather: daily only
Inspect 4 source receipts
Official HOU at JAX Week 6 game center ↗

The official game center is the primary matchup record. Final game statuses and inactive lists were not available at the observation time and remain pending.

Observed 2026-10-14T14:46:48Z
Official Week 6 availability checkpoint ↗

Houston listed David Montgomery and Jalen Pitre week to week. Jacksonville placed Anton Harrison on injured reserve. Neither club had posted a Week 6 practice report, so all other availability remains unknown.

Observed 2026-10-14T14:46:48Z
Current venue and kickoff-weather checkpoint ↗

The Met Office four-day outlook around kickoff shows sunny intervals near 14 C, a 20 to 30 percent precipitation chance and light wind. Wembley's roof does not cover the playing surface.

Observed 2026-10-14T14:46:48Z
Week 6 matchup role and efficiency table ↗

The role table was used as a Tuesday countercheck for snap share, opportunity and drive-efficiency context. It labels starters and market data as provisional, so final availability is not inferred.

Observed 2026-10-14T14:46:48Z
FROZEN AT KICKOFFWIN
PICK 04 · SLEEPER55%Estimated chance

Parker Washington

25+ receiving yards

Our projection 38 yards

The forecast gives Parker Washington a supported path to 25+ receiving yards without treating one prior result or a displayed market as destiny.

Why this pick? Research & risks

Why this number?

UNCALIBRATED research judgment anchored to the player's current role, matchup usage path and the independently chosen 25+ receiving-yard threshold. Current role evidence is paired with provisional availability.

Subjective 55% event estimate rounded to five points. It weighs role, opponent structure, projected game script and uncertainty. It is not an empirical hit rate, proven calibration or betting-edge claim.

What could go wrong
  • Houston listed David Montgomery and Jalen Pitre week to week. Jacksonville placed Anton Harrison on injured reserve. Neither club had posted a Week 6 practice report, so all other availability remains unknown.
  • Volume can move with turnovers, score state and opponent adjustments.
  • The Met Office four-day outlook around kickoff shows sunny intervals near 14 C, a 20 to 30 percent precipitation chance and light wind. Wembley's roof does not cover the playing surface.
Injuries: provisionalInactives: pendingWeather: daily only
Inspect 4 source receipts
Official HOU at JAX Week 6 game center ↗

The official game center is the primary matchup record. Final game statuses and inactive lists were not available at the observation time and remain pending.

Observed 2026-10-14T14:46:48Z
Official Week 6 availability checkpoint ↗

Houston listed David Montgomery and Jalen Pitre week to week. Jacksonville placed Anton Harrison on injured reserve. Neither club had posted a Week 6 practice report, so all other availability remains unknown.

Observed 2026-10-14T14:46:48Z
Current venue and kickoff-weather checkpoint ↗

The Met Office four-day outlook around kickoff shows sunny intervals near 14 C, a 20 to 30 percent precipitation chance and light wind. Wembley's roof does not cover the playing surface.

Observed 2026-10-14T14:46:48Z
Week 6 matchup role and efficiency table ↗

The role table was used as a Tuesday countercheck for snap share, opportunity and drive-efficiency context. It labels starters and market data as provisional, so final availability is not inferred.

Observed 2026-10-14T14:46:48Z
FROZEN AT KICKOFFWIN
PICK 05 · CORE PLAY55%Estimated chance

Bhayshul Tuten

50+ rushing yards

Our projection 64 yards

The forecast gives Bhayshul Tuten a supported path to 50+ rushing yards without treating one prior result or a displayed market as destiny.

Why this pick? Research & risks

Why this number?

UNCALIBRATED research judgment anchored to the player's current role, matchup usage path and the independently chosen 50+ rushing-yard threshold. Current role evidence is paired with provisional availability.

Subjective 55% event estimate rounded to five points. It weighs role, opponent structure, projected game script and uncertainty. It is not an empirical hit rate, proven calibration or betting-edge claim.

What could go wrong
  • Houston listed David Montgomery and Jalen Pitre week to week. Jacksonville placed Anton Harrison on injured reserve. Neither club had posted a Week 6 practice report, so all other availability remains unknown.
  • Volume can move with turnovers, score state and opponent adjustments.
  • The Met Office four-day outlook around kickoff shows sunny intervals near 14 C, a 20 to 30 percent precipitation chance and light wind. Wembley's roof does not cover the playing surface.
Injuries: provisionalInactives: pendingWeather: daily only
Inspect 4 source receipts
Official HOU at JAX Week 6 game center ↗

The official game center is the primary matchup record. Final game statuses and inactive lists were not available at the observation time and remain pending.

Observed 2026-10-14T14:46:48Z
Official Week 6 availability checkpoint ↗

Houston listed David Montgomery and Jalen Pitre week to week. Jacksonville placed Anton Harrison on injured reserve. Neither club had posted a Week 6 practice report, so all other availability remains unknown.

Observed 2026-10-14T14:46:48Z
Current venue and kickoff-weather checkpoint ↗

The Met Office four-day outlook around kickoff shows sunny intervals near 14 C, a 20 to 30 percent precipitation chance and light wind. Wembley's roof does not cover the playing surface.

Observed 2026-10-14T14:46:48Z
Week 6 matchup role and efficiency table ↗

The role table was used as a Tuesday countercheck for snap share, opportunity and drive-efficiency context. It labels starters and market data as provisional, so final availability is not inferred.

Observed 2026-10-14T14:46:48Z
FROZEN AT KICKOFFLOSS
Forecast publication snapshot

Method: atlas-research-v2 · subjective research estimates
Published: 2026-10-14T15:21:29.000Z
Cutoff: 2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z
Revision: 2026-w06-hou-jax-research-v2-20261014-r1

SHA-256 6caaa7421bb62665ea1ec5385230a68c71d2b1fb1db29b74edc2d61673a696ec

Earlier revisions remain visible in the public record. Percentages, projected score and player targets freeze together.

Inspect the permanent record ↗