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WEEK 7 · KICKOFF PASSED

DEN at ARI

DEN at ARI
Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM EDT

Official schedule ↗
OUR PREDICTED WINNER

DEN

DEN 23 · ARI 17 projected score

60%Estimated win chance

Atlas keeps DEN to win 23-17. Arizona's leading rusher Jeremiyah Love is officially inactive, while the current publisher display is unchanged from the prior Denver -4.5 and 43.5 context. The 60 percent estimate remains an explicitly uncalibrated research judgment.

Winner reasoning, risks and sources

Atlas weighs the official team leaders and efficiency profile, final game-day availability, the nearby National Weather Service forecast, and current same-operator publisher context. FanDuel Research displayed Denver -4.5 and total 43.5.

  • Denver's defense and extra rest create the edge, but its modest scoring output keeps Arizona's field-goal path alive.
  • State Farm Stadium roof status was not published in the verified sources.
  • Publisher-displayed market context is not proof of value or an executable offer.

Official DEN at ARI Week 7 game center ↗
The official game center verifies the matchup, venue, current team leaders, season statistics, and published practice participation. Denver lists J.K. Dobbins at 270 rushing yards and Jaylen Waddle at 228 receiving yards. Arizona lists Jeremiyah Love at 245 rushing yards and Trey McBride at 361 receiving yards.
Observed 2026-10-22T14:50:00Z

Official NFL Week 7 injury report ↗
Jaylen Waddle was limited and Tyler Badie did not participate. Jeremiyah Love did not participate and Carson Beck was limited. Final statuses remain pending.
Observed 2026-10-22T14:50:00Z

Week 7 venue and weather check for DEN at ARI ↗
Outdoor baseline is sunny near 80 F with calm wind; State Farm Stadium roof status is decided on game day and remains unknown.
Observed 2026-10-22T14:50:00Z

FanDuel Research DEN at ARI publisher display ↗
FanDuel Research displayed Denver -4.5 and total 43.5 after opening Denver -4.5 and 45.5. This is a publisher display, not a verified executable offer.
Observed 2026-10-22T14:50:00Z

Official NFL Week 7 game-day availability report ↗
The official game-day report resolves the remaining Week 7 availability questions before kickoff and identifies the players unavailable for Denver and Arizona.
Observed 2026-10-25T19:45:32Z

Official NFL Week 7 inactives for DEN at ARI ↗
Arizona lists Jeremiyah Love, Max Melton, Carson Beck, Andrew Wingard, Jon Gaines II, Albert Reese, and Walter Nolen III inactive. Denver lists Pat Surtain II, Sam Ehlinger, Talanoa Hufanga, Kage Casey, Dallan Bentley, Jordan Jackson, and Tyler Onyedim inactive.
Observed 2026-10-25T19:45:32Z

National Weather Service Phoenix forecast ↗
The nearby National Weather Service forecast calls for sunny conditions, a high near 82 F, and calm wind becoming west northwest around 5 mph. State Farm Stadium roof status was not published in the verified sources.
Observed 2026-10-25T19:45:32Z

FanDuel Research Week 7 publisher display ↗
FanDuel Research displayed Denver -4.5 and total 43.5 with -110 prices on both total sides. This is a publisher-displayed quote, not a verified executable offer.
Observed 2026-10-25T19:45:32Z

RANKED BY OUR RESEARCH

Our 5 picks

These are our projected outcomes and yardage targets, not copied sportsbook lines. Percentages estimate each event’s chance, not our past accuracy. They are subjective and uncalibrated. A likely outcome is not automatically a good bet at any price. These are individual ideas, not a suggested parlay.

PICK 01 · CORE PLAY60%Estimated chance

Trey McBride

55+ receiving yards

Our projection 65 yards

The independent house event asks for at least 55 receiving yards, below the 65-yard central scenario. It is not a quoted sportsbook line.

Why this pick? Research & risks

Why this number?

McBride leads Arizona with 361 receiving yards on 49 catches and three touchdowns.

Uncalibrated Atlas research judgment, rounded to five points. It weighs current season role, official team statistics, availability uncertainty, opponent structure, market context, and projected score state. It is not an empirical hit rate or a claim of betting edge.

What could go wrong
  • Denver can bracket the middle of the field.
  • Quarterback availability can affect target quality.
Injuries: finalInactives: confirmedWeather: verified
Inspect 4 source receipts
Official DEN at ARI Week 7 game center ↗

The official game center verifies the matchup, venue, current team leaders, season statistics, and published practice participation. Denver lists J.K. Dobbins at 270 rushing yards and Jaylen Waddle at 228 receiving yards. Arizona lists Jeremiyah Love at 245 rushing yards and Trey McBride at 361 receiving yards.

Observed 2026-10-22T14:50:00Z
Official NFL Week 7 injury report ↗

Jaylen Waddle was limited and Tyler Badie did not participate. Jeremiyah Love did not participate and Carson Beck was limited. Final statuses remain pending.

Observed 2026-10-22T14:50:00Z
Official NFL Week 7 game-day availability report ↗

The official game-day report resolves the remaining Week 7 availability questions before kickoff and identifies the players unavailable for Denver and Arizona.

Observed 2026-10-25T19:45:32Z
Official NFL Week 7 inactives for DEN at ARI ↗

Arizona lists Jeremiyah Love, Max Melton, Carson Beck, Andrew Wingard, Jon Gaines II, Albert Reese, and Walter Nolen III inactive. Denver lists Pat Surtain II, Sam Ehlinger, Talanoa Hufanga, Kage Casey, Dallan Bentley, Jordan Jackson, and Tyler Onyedim inactive.

Observed 2026-10-25T19:45:32Z
FROZEN AT KICKOFFWIN
PICK 02 · CORE PLAY55%Estimated chance

J.K. Dobbins

45+ rushing yards

Our projection 54 yards

The independent house event asks for at least 45 rushing yards, below the 54-yard central scenario. It is not a quoted sportsbook line.

Why this pick? Research & risks

Why this number?

Dobbins leads Denver with 270 rushing yards on 81 attempts.

Uncalibrated Atlas research judgment, rounded to five points. It weighs current season role, official team statistics, availability uncertainty, opponent structure, market context, and projected score state. It is not an empirical hit rate or a claim of betting edge.

What could go wrong
  • A 3.3-yard average requires stable volume.
  • Arizona can control possession.
Injuries: finalInactives: confirmedWeather: verified
Inspect 4 source receipts
Official DEN at ARI Week 7 game center ↗

The official game center verifies the matchup, venue, current team leaders, season statistics, and published practice participation. Denver lists J.K. Dobbins at 270 rushing yards and Jaylen Waddle at 228 receiving yards. Arizona lists Jeremiyah Love at 245 rushing yards and Trey McBride at 361 receiving yards.

Observed 2026-10-22T14:50:00Z
Official NFL Week 7 injury report ↗

Jaylen Waddle was limited and Tyler Badie did not participate. Jeremiyah Love did not participate and Carson Beck was limited. Final statuses remain pending.

Observed 2026-10-22T14:50:00Z
Official NFL Week 7 game-day availability report ↗

The official game-day report resolves the remaining Week 7 availability questions before kickoff and identifies the players unavailable for Denver and Arizona.

Observed 2026-10-25T19:45:32Z
Official NFL Week 7 inactives for DEN at ARI ↗

Arizona lists Jeremiyah Love, Max Melton, Carson Beck, Andrew Wingard, Jon Gaines II, Albert Reese, and Walter Nolen III inactive. Denver lists Pat Surtain II, Sam Ehlinger, Talanoa Hufanga, Kage Casey, Dallan Bentley, Jordan Jackson, and Tyler Onyedim inactive.

Observed 2026-10-25T19:45:32Z
FROZEN AT KICKOFFLOSS
PICK 03 · CORE PLAY50%Estimated chance

Jaylen Waddle

35+ receiving yards

Our projection 44 yards

The independent house event asks for at least 35 receiving yards, below the 44-yard central scenario. It is not a quoted sportsbook line.

Why this pick? Research & risks

Why this number?

Waddle leads Denver with 228 receiving yards on 22 catches.

Uncalibrated Atlas research judgment, rounded to five points. It weighs current season role, official team statistics, availability uncertainty, opponent structure, market context, and projected score state. It is not an empirical hit rate or a claim of betting edge.

What could go wrong
  • Waddle was limited in the current practice listing.
  • Denver can win through defense and the run.
Injuries: finalInactives: confirmedWeather: verified
Inspect 4 source receipts
Official DEN at ARI Week 7 game center ↗

The official game center verifies the matchup, venue, current team leaders, season statistics, and published practice participation. Denver lists J.K. Dobbins at 270 rushing yards and Jaylen Waddle at 228 receiving yards. Arizona lists Jeremiyah Love at 245 rushing yards and Trey McBride at 361 receiving yards.

Observed 2026-10-22T14:50:00Z
Official NFL Week 7 injury report ↗

Jaylen Waddle was limited and Tyler Badie did not participate. Jeremiyah Love did not participate and Carson Beck was limited. Final statuses remain pending.

Observed 2026-10-22T14:50:00Z
Official NFL Week 7 game-day availability report ↗

The official game-day report resolves the remaining Week 7 availability questions before kickoff and identifies the players unavailable for Denver and Arizona.

Observed 2026-10-25T19:45:32Z
Official NFL Week 7 inactives for DEN at ARI ↗

Arizona lists Jeremiyah Love, Max Melton, Carson Beck, Andrew Wingard, Jon Gaines II, Albert Reese, and Walter Nolen III inactive. Denver lists Pat Surtain II, Sam Ehlinger, Talanoa Hufanga, Kage Casey, Dallan Bentley, Jordan Jackson, and Tyler Onyedim inactive.

Observed 2026-10-25T19:45:32Z
FROZEN AT KICKOFFWIN
PICK 04 · SLEEPER45%Estimated chance

J.K. Dobbins

Anytime touchdown

The event asks whether J.K. Dobbins scores a rushing or receiving touchdown. It does not count a passing touchdown.

Why this pick? Research & risks

Why this number?

Dobbins leads Denver with 270 rushing yards on 81 attempts and remains central to the projected Denver win script.

Uncalibrated Atlas research judgment, rounded to five points. It weighs Dobbins' documented rushing role, the projected score state, official final inactives, and current publisher-displayed market context. It is not an empirical hit rate or a claim of betting edge.

What could go wrong
  • Denver can finish drives through the passing game or field goals.
  • Arizona can force negative game state or split goal-line work.
Injuries: finalInactives: confirmedWeather: verified
Inspect 3 source receipts
Official DEN at ARI Week 7 game center ↗

The official game center verifies the matchup, venue, current team leaders, season statistics, and published practice participation. Denver lists J.K. Dobbins at 270 rushing yards and Jaylen Waddle at 228 receiving yards. Arizona lists Jeremiyah Love at 245 rushing yards and Trey McBride at 361 receiving yards.

Observed 2026-10-22T14:50:00Z
Official NFL Week 7 game-day availability report ↗

The official game-day report resolves the remaining Week 7 availability questions before kickoff and identifies the players unavailable for Denver and Arizona.

Observed 2026-10-25T19:45:32Z
Official NFL Week 7 inactives for DEN at ARI ↗

Arizona lists Jeremiyah Love, Max Melton, Carson Beck, Andrew Wingard, Jon Gaines II, Albert Reese, and Walter Nolen III inactive. Denver lists Pat Surtain II, Sam Ehlinger, Talanoa Hufanga, Kage Casey, Dallan Bentley, Jordan Jackson, and Tyler Onyedim inactive.

Observed 2026-10-25T19:45:32Z
FROZEN AT KICKOFFWIN
PICK 05 · CORE PLAY40%Estimated chance

Trey McBride

Anytime touchdown

The event asks whether Trey McBride scores a rushing or receiving touchdown. It does not count a passing touchdown.

Why this pick? Research & risks

Why this number?

McBride has three receiving touchdowns and Arizona's clearest volume role.

Uncalibrated Atlas research judgment, rounded to five points. It weighs current season role, official team statistics, availability uncertainty, opponent structure, market context, and projected score state. It is not an empirical hit rate or a claim of betting edge.

What could go wrong
  • Denver can force field goals.
  • Arizona can score through the ground game.
Injuries: finalInactives: confirmedWeather: verified
Inspect 4 source receipts
Official DEN at ARI Week 7 game center ↗

The official game center verifies the matchup, venue, current team leaders, season statistics, and published practice participation. Denver lists J.K. Dobbins at 270 rushing yards and Jaylen Waddle at 228 receiving yards. Arizona lists Jeremiyah Love at 245 rushing yards and Trey McBride at 361 receiving yards.

Observed 2026-10-22T14:50:00Z
Official NFL Week 7 injury report ↗

Jaylen Waddle was limited and Tyler Badie did not participate. Jeremiyah Love did not participate and Carson Beck was limited. Final statuses remain pending.

Observed 2026-10-22T14:50:00Z
Official NFL Week 7 game-day availability report ↗

The official game-day report resolves the remaining Week 7 availability questions before kickoff and identifies the players unavailable for Denver and Arizona.

Observed 2026-10-25T19:45:32Z
Official NFL Week 7 inactives for DEN at ARI ↗

Arizona lists Jeremiyah Love, Max Melton, Carson Beck, Andrew Wingard, Jon Gaines II, Albert Reese, and Walter Nolen III inactive. Denver lists Pat Surtain II, Sam Ehlinger, Talanoa Hufanga, Kage Casey, Dallan Bentley, Jordan Jackson, and Tyler Onyedim inactive.

Observed 2026-10-25T19:45:32Z
FROZEN AT KICKOFFWIN
Forecast publication snapshot

Method: atlas-research-v2 · subjective research estimates
Published: 2026-10-25T19:47:55.000Z
Cutoff: 2026-10-25T20:05:00.000Z
Revision: 2026-w07-den-ari-research-v2-20261025-r2

SHA-256 3398e6b69cf2f5a0d161d76053a4cae06138645882c5739c9e82b0d507420a54

Earlier revisions remain visible in the public record. Percentages, projected score and player targets freeze together.

Inspect the permanent record ↗